IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae15/211574.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO

Author

Listed:
  • Dillen, Koen

Abstract

Type On August 6 2014 the Russian Federation introduced a one year ban on imports into the Russian Federation of agricultural products, raw materials and food, originating from selected countries including the EU. This paper provides an initial assessment of the potential impact of this import ban on EU agricultural markets. Furthermore it provides an insight in the shifting trade patterns and price effects at EU, Russian and world level. We use the Aglink-Cosimo model, a recursive partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector. Its gross trade specification is problematic for the study of bilateral trade. Therefore the model was extended with an ad hoc incorporation of bilateral trade. The initial results show that the impact for the EU remains rather limited as the EU can divert a considerable part of its trade with Russia to other markets. The impact on the Russian market is however expected to be considerable as imports can't be easily substituted and domestic production has problems to expand productions significantly within the timeframe of the ban.

Suggested Citation

  • Dillen, Koen, 2015. "The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211574, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:211574
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211574
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/211574/files/Dillen-The%20Russian%20ban%20on%20EU%20agricultural%20imports-853.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.211574?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Cornelia Staritz & Erik Von Uexkull, 2014. "Assessing the adjustment implications of trade policy changes using the Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool (TRIST)," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, DISTRIBUTION AND DEVELOPMENT Empirical Studies of Trade Policies, chapter 8, pages 153-181, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Nolte, Stephan, 2006. "The application of spatial models in the analysis of bilateral trade flows: An alternative to the Armington approach for the world sugar market," Working Paper Series 10288, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    4. Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Aline Mosnier & Michael Obersteiner & Justin S. Baker & Mario Herrero & Mariana C. Rufino & Erwin Schmid, 2013. "Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 442-448.
    5. Ralf Peters & David Vanzetti, 2004. "User Manual And Handbook On Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (Atpsm)," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 24, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    6. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    7. Peter Lloyd & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "The Armington Model," Staff Working Papers 0602, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duric, I. & Glauben, T. & Zaric, V., 2018. "Impact of the Russian agricultural import ban on the Serbian pork exports and domestic price development along the pork value chain," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277201, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Meyers, William H. & Schroeder, Kateryna G., 2016. "Commodity markets and trade to 2025: What is driving these changes?," 155th Seminar, September 19-21, 2016, Kiev, Ukraine 245172, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Daria Loginova & Judith Irek, 2022. "Russian meat price transmission and policy interventions in 2014," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    4. Banse, Martin & Duric, Ivan & Götz, Linde & Laquai, Verena, 2019. "From the Russian food import ban to free trade from Lisbon to Vladivostok - will farmers benefit?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 20-31.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schmitz, Christoph & van Meijl, Hans & Kyle, Page & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Gurgel, Angelo & Havlik, Petr & d'Croz, Daniel Mason & Popp, Alexander & Sands, Ron & Tabeau, Andrzej & van der Mensbrugghe, , 2013. "An agro-economic model comparison of cropland change until 2050," Conference papers 332351, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Christoph Schmitz & Hans van Meijl & Page Kyle & Gerald C. Nelson & Shinichiro Fujimori & Angelo Gurgel & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Daniel Mason d'Croz & Alexander Popp & Ron Sands & Andrzej Tabea, 2014. "Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 69-84, January.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    4. Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Page Kyle & Shinichiro Fujimori & Petr Havlik & Hans Meijl & Tomoko Hasegawa & Alexander Popp & Christoph Schmitz & Andrzej Tabeau & Hugo Valin & Dirk Willenbocke, 2014. "Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 103-116, January.
    5. Christoph Müller & Richard D. Robertson, 2014. "Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 37-50, January.
    6. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    7. Fletcher, Stanley M. & Nadolnyak, Denis A., 2005. "Accommodating Imperfect Competition in A Model of World Peanut Trade," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19460, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2022. "Markups, quality, and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Yane, Haruka & Yamada, Hiroyuki, 2015. "Import Competition from Neighbors: Impacts on Performances of Enterprises in Vietnam," Conference papers 332621, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Ralph Ossa, 2012. "Profits in the "New Trade" Approach to Trade Negotiations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 466-469, May.
    11. Tovar, Jorge, 2012. "Consumers’ Welfare and Trade Liberalization: Evidence from the Car Industry in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 808-820.
    12. Colin Davis, 2013. "Regional integration and innovation offshoring with occupational choice and endogenous growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 59-79, January.
    13. Masashige Hamano & Pierre M. Picard, 2017. "Extensive and intensive margins and exchange rate regimes," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 804-837, August.
    14. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Anne-Célia Disdier & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "Trade impact of European measures on GMOs condemned by the WTO panel," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 495-514, September.
    16. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2007. "Productivity, terms of trade and the `home market effect'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 99-127, September.
    17. Sandy Fréret & Denis Maguain, 2017. "The effects of agglomeration on tax competition: evidence from a two-regime spatial panel model on French data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(6), pages 1100-1140, December.
    18. Redding, Stephen & Weinstein, David, 2017. "Aggregating From Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 12446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Cherkashin, Ivan & Demidova, Svetlana & Kee, Hiau Looi & Krishna, Kala, 2015. "Firm heterogeneity and costly trade: A new estimation strategy and policy experiments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 18-36.
    20. Jani Bekő, 2003. "Causality between exports and economic growth: empirical estimates for slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(2), pages 169-186.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:211574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.