IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mns/wpaper/wp201511.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: Integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS)

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaolin Ren

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Matthias Weitzel

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Brian O'Neill

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Peter Lawrence

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Prasanth Meiyappan

    (University of Illinois)

  • Sam Levis

    (The Climate Corporation)

  • Edward J. Balistreri

    (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines)

  • Mike Dalton

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Abstract

Agricultural systems provide food and are also an important part of the economy for many countries, but crop yields are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We assess the global impacts of climate change on agricultural systems under two climate projections (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) in order to quantify the difference in impacts as climate change is reduced. We also employ two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) to assess the sensitivity of results to the underlying socioeconomic conditions. The integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, a global integrated assessment model for projecting future energy use, land use and emissions, is used in conjunction with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and particularly its land surface component, the Community Land Model (CLM), to evaluate climate change impacts on agriculture. iPETS results are produced at the level of nine world regions for the period 2005-2100. We employ climate impacts on crop yield derived from CLM, driven by CESM simulations of the two RCPs. These yield effects are applied within iPETS, imposed on baseline and mitigation scenarios for SSP3 and SSP5 that are consistent with the RCPs. We find that the reduced level of warming in RCP4.5 (relative to RCP8.5) can have either positive or negative effects on the economy since crop yield either increases or decreases with climate change depending on assumptions about CO2 fertilization. For example, yields are 10% lower, and crop prices +17% higher, in RCP4.5 relative to RCP8.5 if CO2 fertilization is included, whereas yields are 20% higher, and crop prices 19% lower, if it is not. We also find that in the mitigation scenarios, crop prices are substantially affected by mitigation actions as well as by climate impacts. For the scenarios we evaluated, the development pathway (SSP3 vs SSP5) has a larger impact on outcomes than climate (RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5), by a factor of 3 for crop prices, 11 for total cropland use, and 21 for GDP on global average.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaolin Ren & Matthias Weitzel & Brian O'Neill & Peter Lawrence & Prasanth Meiyappan & Sam Levis & Edward J. Balistreri & Mike Dalton, 2015. "Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: Integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS)," Working Papers 2015-11, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201511
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econbus-papers.mines.edu/working-papers/wp201511.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Gerald C. Nelson & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Katherine Calvin & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Daniel Ma, 2014. "Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 85-101, January.
    3. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    4. Meiyappan, Prasanth & Dalton, Michael & O’Neill, Brian C. & Jain, Atul K., 2014. "Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 152-174.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    2. Shinichiro Fujimori & Toshichika Iizumi & Tomoko Hasegawa & Jun’ya Takakura & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-14, October.
    3. N. B. Melnikov & A. P. Gruzdev & M. G. Dalton & M. Weitzel & B. C. O’Neill, 2021. "Parallel Extended Path Method for Solving Perfect Foresight Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 517-534, August.
    4. Matthias Weitzel & Edward J. Balistreri & Brian C. O'Neill & Xiaolin Ren, 2019. "A GAMS/MPSGE implementation of the PET model," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 19-wp593, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Brian C. O’Neill & James Done & Andrew Gettelman & Peter Lawrence & Flavio Lehner & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Lei Lin & Andrew Monaghan & Keith Oleson & Xiaolin Ren & Benjamin Sanderson & Claudia Tebal, 2018. "The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): a synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 287-301, February.
    6. Anton Orlov & Anne Sophie Daloz & Jana Sillmann & Wim Thiery & Clara Douzal & Quentin Lejeune & Carl Schleussner, 2021. "Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 367-390, October.
    7. Ying Xu & Lei Yao, 2021. "Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation into Land Use Optimization: A Case Study in Huailai County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-19, November.
    8. Nayab Khalid & Ayesha Siddiqa & Sheraz Ahmad Ch & Khalid Zaman, 2018. "Impact of Agriculture Sector Development on Economic Growth: Application of Robust Linear Least Squares Regression on Pakistan’s Data Set," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 14(4), pages 631-641, AUGUST.
    9. N. M. Svetlov & S. O. Siptits & I. A. Romanenko & N. E. Evdokimova, 2019. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Location of Branches of Agriculture in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 406-418, July.
    10. Mfaniseni Wiseman Mbatha & Mfundo Mandla Masuku, 2018. "Small-Scale Agriculture as a Panacea in Enhancing South African Rural Economies," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 33-41.
    11. Salvi Asefi-Najafabady & Karen L Vandecar & Anton Seimon & Peter Lawrence & Deborah Lawrence, 2018. "Climate change, population, and poverty: vulnerability and exposure to heat stress in countries bordering the Great Lakes of Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 561-573, June.
    12. Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso & Abiodun Olusola Omotayo, 2024. "Impact of behavioural intention to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices on the food and nutrition security of farming households: A microeconomic level evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-25, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    2. Blanco, María & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Martínez, Pilar & Fumagalli, Davide & Ceglar, Andrej & Fernández, Francisco J., 2017. "Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 52-66.
    3. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    4. Shinichiro Fujimori & Toshichika Iizumi & Tomoko Hasegawa & Jun’ya Takakura & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-14, October.
    5. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-53.
    6. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    7. H. Charles J. Godfray & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 26-44.
    8. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin, 2019. "Computing the economic value of climate information for water stress management exemplified by crop production in Austria," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 430-448.
    10. Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo & Bryan, Brett A. & Schwabe, Kurt A. & Connor, Jeffery D. & Law, Elizabeth A. & Nolan, Martin & Sánchez, José J., 2019. "Projected social costs of CO2 emissions from forest losses far exceed the sequestration benefits of forest gains under global change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Schmitz, Christoph & van Meijl, Hans & Kyle, Page & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Gurgel, Angelo & Havlik, Petr & d'Croz, Daniel Mason & Popp, Alexander & Sands, Ron & Tabeau, Andrzej & van der Mensbrugghe, , 2013. "An agro-economic model comparison of cropland change until 2050," Conference papers 332351, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    13. Palazzo,Amanda & Valin,Hugo Jean Pierre & Batka,Miroslav & Havlík,Petr, 2019. "Investment Needs for Irrigation Infrastructure along Different Socioeconomic Pathways," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8744, The World Bank.
    14. Nelson, Gerald C. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2014. "Public sector agricultural research priorities for sustainable food security: Perspectives from plausible scenarios:," IFPRI discussion papers 1339, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Simon Dietz & Bruno Lanz, 2019. "Growth and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Long Run," CESifo Working Paper Series 7986, CESifo.
    16. Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Research Reports JRC106835, Joint Research Centre.
    17. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Carr, Tony, 2020. "Land degradation and food security: impacts and adaptation options," Conference papers 333148, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Christoph Schmitz & Hans van Meijl & Page Kyle & Gerald C. Nelson & Shinichiro Fujimori & Angelo Gurgel & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Daniel Mason d'Croz & Alexander Popp & Ron Sands & Andrzej Tabea, 2014. "Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 69-84, January.
    19. Sands, Ronald & Jones, Carol & Marshall, Elizabeth P., 2014. "Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply," Economic Research Report 186137, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    20. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Avoided impacts; climate change; crop yields; CO2 fertilization; integrated assessment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jared Carbone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decsmus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.