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Trust in science, social consensus and vaccine confidence

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  • Patrick Sturgis

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Ian Brunton-Smith

    (University of Surrey)

  • Jonathan Jackson

    (London School of Economics and Political Science
    University of Sydney Law School)

Abstract

While scholarly attention to date has focused almost entirely on individual-level drivers of vaccine confidence, we show that macro-level factors play an important role in understanding individual propensity to be confident about vaccination. We analyse data from the 2018 Wellcome Global Monitor survey covering over 120,000 respondents in 126 countries to assess how societal-level trust in science is related to vaccine confidence. In countries with a high aggregate level of trust in science, people are more likely to be confident about vaccination, over and above their individual-level scientific trust. Additionally, we show that societal consensus around trust in science moderates these individual-level and country-level relationships. In countries with a high level of consensus regarding the trustworthiness of science and scientists, the positive correlation between trust in science and vaccine confidence is stronger than it is in comparable countries where the level of social consensus is weaker.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Sturgis & Ian Brunton-Smith & Jonathan Jackson, 2021. "Trust in science, social consensus and vaccine confidence," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 1528-1534, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:5:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1038_s41562-021-01115-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01115-7
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wagner, Aleksandra & Polak, Paulina & Rudek, Tadeusz Józef & Świątkiewicz-Mośny, Maria & Anderson, Alistair & Bockstal, Marlies & Gariglio, Luigi & Hasmanová Marhánková, Jaroslava & Hilário, Ana Patrí, 2024. "Agency in urgency and uncertainty. Vaccines and vaccination in European media discourses," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    3. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2024. "Stabilizing global foreign exchange markets in the time of COVID-19: The role of vaccinations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Angerer, Silvia & Glätzle-Rützler, Daniela & Lergetporer, Philipp & Rittmannsberger, Thomas, 2023. "How does the vaccine approval procedure affect COVID-19 vaccination intentions?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Marco Clari & Alessandro Godono & Beatrice Albanesi & Elena Casabona & Rosanna Irene Comoretto & Ihab Mansour & Alessio Conti & Valerio Dimonte & Catalina Ciocan, 2022. "Choosing between Homologous or Heterologous COVID-19 Vaccination Regimens: A Cross-Sectional Study among the General Population in Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-9, March.
    6. Niels G. Mede, 2022. "Legacy media as inhibitors and drivers of public reservations against science: global survey evidence on the link between media use and anti-science attitudes," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Roswag, Malte & Häusser, Jan A. & Abdel Hadi, Sascha & Hubert, Philipp & Mojzisch, Andreas, 2024. "Political affiliation as a moderator of the relationship between organizational climate and COVID-19 vaccine readiness," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    8. Naughtin, Claire & Hajkowicz, Stefan & Schleiger, Emma & Bratanova, Alexandra & Cameron, Alicia & Zamin, T & Dutta, A, 2022. "Our Future World: Global megatrends impacting the way we live over coming decades," MPRA Paper 113900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shockey, James W, 2021. "Social Aspects of COVID Mitigation," SocArXiv sgjvp, Center for Open Science.
    10. Željko Pavić & Emma KovaÄ ević & Adrijana Å uljok & Juraj Jurlina & Maja MiÅ¡kulin & Aida Mujkić & Ivan MiÅ¡kulin, 2023. "The Deficit and Contextual Models of Vaccine Hesitancy: A Test of the Mediation Paths," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    11. Galdikiene, Laura & Jaraite, Jurate & Kajackaite, Agne, 2022. "Trust and vaccination intentions: Evidence from Lithuania during the COVID-19 pandemic," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 17(11), pages 1-1.
    12. Ngo, Vu M. & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Nguyen, Phuc V. & Huynh, Toan L.D. & Nguyen, Huan H., 2021. "How education and GDP drive the COVID-19 vaccination campaign," MERIT Working Papers 2021-046, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Justin Sulik & Ophelia Deroy & Guillaume Dezecache & Martha Newson & Yi Zhao & Marwa El Zein & Bahar Tunçgenç, 2021. "Facing the pandemic with trust in science," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Zhe-Fei Mao & Qi-Wei Li & Yi-Ming Wang & Jie Zhou, 2024. "Pro-religion attitude predicts lower vaccination coverage at country level," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    15. Narae Kim & Jeong-Nam Kim, 2024. "A COVID-19 Paradox of Communication, Ignorance, and Vaccination Intention," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, September.
    16. Shockey, James W, 2021. "Social Aspects of COVID Mitigation," SocArXiv sgjvp_v1, Center for Open Science.
    17. Seungwoo Han, 2024. "Trust and needles: how perceptions of inequality shape vaccination in South Korea," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Mengjun Zhang & Bei Liu & Guochun Xiang & Xuqiang Yan & Yuting Ling & Chao Zuo, 2024. "Navigating the shift: understanding public trust in authorities amidst policy shifts in China’s COVID-19 response," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Haibo Qin & Zhongxuan Xie & Huping Shang & Yong Sun & Xiaohui Yang & Mengming Li, 2024. "The mass public’s science literacy and co-production during the COVID-19 pandemic: empirical evidence from 140 cities in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.

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