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A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Emma Pierson

    (Stanford University)

  • Camelia Simoiu

    (Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University)

  • Jan Overgoor

    (Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University)

  • Sam Corbett-Davies

    (Stanford University)

  • Daniel Jenson

    (Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University)

  • Amy Shoemaker

    (Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University)

  • Vignesh Ramachandran

    (Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University)

  • Phoebe Barghouty

    (Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University)

  • Cheryl Phillips

    (Communication, Stanford University)

  • Ravi Shroff

    (Applied Statistics, Social Science, and Humanities, New York University)

  • Sharad Goel

    (Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University)

Abstract

We assessed racial disparities in policing in the United States by compiling and analysing a dataset detailing nearly 100 million traffic stops conducted across the country. We found that black drivers were less likely to be stopped after sunset, when a ‘veil of darkness’ masks one’s race, suggesting bias in stop decisions. Furthermore, by examining the rate at which stopped drivers were searched and the likelihood that searches turned up contraband, we found evidence that the bar for searching black and Hispanic drivers was lower than that for searching white drivers. Finally, we found that legalization of recreational marijuana reduced the number of searches of white, black and Hispanic drivers—but the bar for searching black and Hispanic drivers was still lower than that for white drivers post-legalization. Our results indicate that police stops and search decisions suffer from persistent racial bias and point to the value of policy interventions to mitigate these disparities.

Suggested Citation

  • Emma Pierson & Camelia Simoiu & Jan Overgoor & Sam Corbett-Davies & Daniel Jenson & Amy Shoemaker & Vignesh Ramachandran & Phoebe Barghouty & Cheryl Phillips & Ravi Shroff & Sharad Goel, 2020. "A large-scale analysis of racial disparities in police stops across the United States," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 736-745, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:4:y:2020:i:7:d:10.1038_s41562-020-0858-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0858-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kate Antonovics & Brian G. Knight, 2009. "A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 163-177, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Short, Martin B. & Mohler, George O., 2023. "A fully Bayesian tracking algorithm for mitigating disparate prediction misclassification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1238-1252.
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    3. Miner, Patrick & Smith, Barbara M. & Jani, Anant & McNeill, Geraldine & Gathorne-Hardy, Alfred, 2024. "Car harm: A global review of automobility's harm to people and the environment," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Wright, Nicholas A. & Dorilas, Ernest, 2022. "Do Cellphone Bans Save Lives? Evidence From Handheld Laws on Traffic Fatalities," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Tim Goddard, 2021. "The Trouble with Using Risk Assessment Instruments to Quantify the Chance of Future Offending," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Celislami, Elda & Kastoryano, Stephen & Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2023. "Strategic Bureaucratic Opacity: Evidence from Death Investigation Laws and Police Killings," IZA Discussion Papers 16609, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Förster, Manuel & Karos, Dominik, 2021. "From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 644, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    8. Saltiel, Fernando & Tuttle, Cody, 2022. "Business Cycles and Police Hires," IZA Discussion Papers 15665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Mayer, Duncan J., 2024. "Lead and delinquency rates; A spatio-temporal perspective," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    10. Mitchell, Jeffrey & Chihaya, Guilherme Kenji, 2022. "Tract level associations between historical residential redlining and contemporary fatal encounters with police," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    11. Holt, Stephen B & Vinopal, Katie M., 2021. "It's About Time: Examining Inequality in the Time Cost of Waiting," SocArXiv jbk3x, Center for Open Science.
    12. Chen, Ted Hsuan Yun & McLachlan, Paul & Fariss, Christopher J, 2021. "Exposure to Discretionary Arrests Increases Support for Anti-Police Protests," SocArXiv r78ys, Center for Open Science.
    13. Riser, Quentin H. & Rouse, Heather L. & Dorius, Cassandra J., 2023. "Association between early income variation around poverty thresholds, income trajectories, and birth, child, and family characteristics," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Gian Maria Campedelli, 2022. "Explainable Machine Learning for Predicting Homicide Clearance in the United States," Papers 2203.04768, arXiv.org.
    15. Campedelli, Gian Maria, 2022. "Explainable machine learning for predicting homicide clearance in the United States," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. David Crockett, 2022. "Racial Oppression and Racial Projects in Consumer Markets: A Racial Formation Theory Approach [The Ghetto Marketing Life Cycle: A Case of Underachievement]," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 49(1), pages 1-24.
    17. Barajas, Jesus, 2021. "Biking Where Black: Connecting Transportation Planning and Infrastructure to Disproportionate Policing," SocArXiv wszgv, Center for Open Science.
    18. Xinming Du, 2023. "Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10296, CESifo.
    19. Dasom Lee & David J. Hess, 2022. "Public concerns and connected and automated vehicles: safety, privacy, and data security," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Federico Masera, 2022. "The economics of policing and crimeThe economics of policing and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 2, pages 12-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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