Exposure to Discretionary Arrests Increases Support for Anti-Police Protests

The legitimacy of the state rests on individuals' perceptions of fairness when interacting with state institutions and state agents. The police as an institution and as individual agents have wide latitude to detain and use force against individuals. We argue that encounters with state bureaucracy and civil servants, specifically the police, can generate individual-level grievances against the state, and that these grievances make it more likely an individual participates in protest against the state. We study support for and the legitimacy of policing in the context of the anti-police protests in Baltimore, MD following the death of Freddie Gray in April, 2015. Using data from police records and social media, we show that individuals with higher exposure to discretionary arrests --- arrests that are potentially viewed as illegitimate or arbitrary --- are more likely to support protests against the police. In contrast, we demonstrate that exposure to arrests for major crimes such as murder does not follow the same pattern. Thus, support for the police as an institution varies systematically with exposure to arbitrary and capricious encounters with police agents. As these grievance generating encounters become more widespread, we expect to see increased protests against the police and further erosion in support of the police as an institution. Alternatively, shifting institutional resources to focus on major crimes and limiting the discretionary authority of police agents when interacting with the public may help to repair the legitimacy of policing institutions over the long term.