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Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management

Author

Listed:
  • Zhen Yu

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    Chinese Academy of Forestry)

  • Shirong Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Forestry)

  • Haikui Li

    (Chinese Academy of Forestry)

  • Jingjing Liang

    (Purdue University)

  • Weiguo Liu

    (Northwest agriculture and Forestry University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University)

  • Hanqin Tian

    (Boston College, Chestnut Hill)

  • Guoyi Zhou

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Chaoqun Lu

    (Iowa State University)

  • Weibin You

    (Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University)

  • Pengsen Sun

    (Chinese Academy of Forestry)

  • Yanli Dong

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Stephen Sitch

    (University of Exeter)

  • Evgenios Agathokleous

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

Abstract

Forest carbon sequestration capacity in China remains uncertain due to underrepresented tree demographic dynamics and overlooked of harvest impacts. In this study, we employ a process-based biogeochemical model to make projections by using national forest inventories, covering approximately 415,000 permanent plots, revealing an expansion in biomass carbon stock by 13.6 ± 1.5 Pg C from 2020 to 2100, with additional sink through augmentation of wood product pool (0.6-2.0 Pg C) and spatiotemporal optimization of forest management (2.3 ± 0.03 Pg C). We find that statistical model might cause large bias in long-term projection due to underrepresentation or neglect of wood harvest and forest demographic changes. Remarkably, disregarding the repercussions of harvesting on forest age can result in a premature shift in the timing of the carbon sink peak by 1–3 decades. Our findings emphasize the pressing necessity for the swift implementation of optimal forest management strategies for carbon sequestration enhancement.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen Yu & Shirong Liu & Haikui Li & Jingjing Liang & Weiguo Liu & Shilong Piao & Hanqin Tian & Guoyi Zhou & Chaoqun Lu & Weibin You & Pengsen Sun & Yanli Dong & Stephen Sitch & Evgenios Agathokleous, 2024. "Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-47143-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47143-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jing Wang & Liang Feng & Paul I. Palmer & Yi Liu & Shuangxi Fang & Hartmut Bösch & Christopher W. O’Dell & Xiaoping Tang & Dongxu Yang & Lixin Liu & ChaoZong Xia, 2020. "Large Chinese land carbon sink estimated from atmospheric carbon dioxide data," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7831), pages 720-723, October.
    2. Jing Wang & Liang Feng & Paul I. Palmer & Yi Liu & Shuangxi Fang & Hartmut Bösch & Christopher W. O’Dell & Xiaoping Tang & Dongxu Yang & Lixin Liu & ChaoZong Xia, 2020. "Publisher Correction: Large Chinese land carbon sink estimated from atmospheric carbon dioxide data," Nature, Nature, vol. 588(7837), pages 19-19, December.
    3. Xiaohui Tian & Brent Sohngen & Justin Baker & Sara Ohrel & Allen A. Fawcett, 2018. "Will U.S. Forests Continue to Be a Carbon Sink?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(1), pages 97-113.
    4. Giacomo Grassi & Jo House & Frank Dentener & Sandro Federici & Michel den Elzen & Jim Penman, 2017. "The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(3), pages 220-226, March.
    5. Susan C. Cook-Patton & Sara M. Leavitt & David Gibbs & Nancy L. Harris & Kristine Lister & Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira & Russell D. Briggs & Robin L. Chazdon & Thomas W. Crowther & Peter W. Ellis & , 2020. "Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7826), pages 545-550, September.
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