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Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity

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  • Shilong Piao

    (Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
    CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Huijuan Nan

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University)

  • Chris Huntingford

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Pierre Friedlingstein

    (College of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics, University of Exeter)

  • Stephen Sitch

    (College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter)

  • Shushi Peng

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Anders Ahlström

    (Lund University)

  • Josep G. Canadell

    (Global Carbon Project, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Ocean and Atmospheric Flagship)

  • Nan Cong

    (Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Sam Levis

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Peter E. Levy

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK)

  • Lingli Liu

    (State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Mark R. Lomas

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Jiafu Mao

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

  • Ranga B. Myneni

    (Boston University)

  • Philippe Peylin

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Ben Poulter

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Xiaoying Shi

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

  • Guodong Yin

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University)

  • Nicolas Viovy

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Tao Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Xuhui Wang

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University)

  • Soenke Zaehle

    (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)

  • Ning Zeng

    (University of Maryland)

  • Zhenzhong Zeng

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University)

  • Anping Chen

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy of vegetation productivity, is known to be correlated with temperature in northern ecosystems. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Here we show that above 30°N, the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season NDVI and temperature (partial correlation coefficient RNDVI-GT) declined substantially between 1982 and 2011. This decrease in RNDVI-GT is mainly observed in temperate and arctic ecosystems, and is also partly reproduced by process-based ecosystem model results. In the temperate ecosystem, the decrease in RNDVI-GT coincides with an increase in drought. In the arctic ecosystem, it may be related to a nonlinear response of photosynthesis to temperature, increase of hot extreme days and shrub expansion over grass-dominated tundra. Our results caution the use of results from interannual time scales to constrain the decadal response of plants to ongoing warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Shilong Piao & Huijuan Nan & Chris Huntingford & Philippe Ciais & Pierre Friedlingstein & Stephen Sitch & Shushi Peng & Anders Ahlström & Josep G. Canadell & Nan Cong & Sam Levis & Peter E. Levy & Lin, 2014. "Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:5:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms6018
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms6018
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    Cited by:

    1. Chao Yue & Mengyang Xu & Philippe Ciais & Shu Tao & Huizhong Shen & Jinfeng Chang & Wei Li & Lei Deng & Junhao He & Yi Leng & Yu Li & Jiaming Wang & Can Xu & Han Zhang & Pengyi Zhang & Liankai Zhang &, 2024. "Contributions of ecological restoration policies to China’s land carbon balance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Li, Xiran & Zhu, Zaichun & Zeng, Hui & Piao, Shilong, 2016. "Estimation of gross primary production in China (1982–2010) with multiple ecosystem models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 324(C), pages 33-44.
    3. Wenqing Li & Rubén D. Manzanedo & Yuan Jiang & Wenqiu Ma & Enzai Du & Shoudong Zhao & Tim Rademacher & Manyu Dong & Hui Xu & Xinyu Kang & Jun Wang & Fang Wu & Xuefeng Cui & Neil Pederson, 2023. "Reassessment of growth-climate relations indicates the potential for decline across Eurasian boreal larch forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Zefeng Chen & Weiguang Wang & Giovanni Forzieri & Alessandro Cescatti, 2024. "Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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