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Widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to CO2 forcing

Author

Listed:
  • Soong-Ki Kim

    (Yonsei University)

  • Jongsoo Shin

    (Yonsei University)

  • Soon-Il An

    (Yonsei University
    Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH))

  • Hyo-Jeong Kim

    (Yonsei University)

  • Nari Im

    (Yonsei University)

  • Shang-Ping Xie

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Jong-Seong Kug

    (Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
    Yonsei University)

  • Sang-Wook Yeh

    (Hanyang University, ERICA)

Abstract

Some climate variables do not show the same response to declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations as before the preceding increase. A comprehensive understanding of this hysteresis effect and its regional patterns is, however, lacking. Here we use an Earth system model with an idealized CO2 removal scenario to show that surface temperature and precipitation exhibit globally widespread irreversible changes over a timespan of centuries. To explore the climate hysteresis and reversibility on a regional scale, we develop a quantification method that visualizes their spatial patterns. Our experiments project that 89% and 58% of the global area experiences irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation, respectively. Strong irreversible response of surface temperature is found in the Southern Ocean, Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean and of precipitation in the tropical Pacific, global monsoon regions and the Himalayas. These global hotspots of irreversible changes can indicate elevated risks of negative impacts on developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Soong-Ki Kim & Jongsoo Shin & Soon-Il An & Hyo-Jeong Kim & Nari Im & Shang-Ping Xie & Jong-Seong Kug & Sang-Wook Yeh, 2022. "Widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to CO2 forcing," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 834-840, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01452-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01452-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Geon-Il Kim & Ji-Hoon Oh & Na-Yeon Shin & Soon-Il An & Sang-Wook Yeh & Jongsoo Shin & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Ralph Trancoso & Jozef Syktus & Richard P. Allan & Jacky Croke & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Robin Chadwick, 2024. "Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Pinya Wang & Yang Yang & Daokai Xue & Lili Ren & Jianping Tang & L. Ruby Leung & Hong Liao, 2023. "Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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