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Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

Author

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  • Guojian Wang

    (Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Wenju Cai

    (Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Bolan Gan

    (Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Agus Santoso

    (Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science)

  • Xiaopei Lin

    (Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Zhaohui Chen

    (Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Michael J. McPhaden

    (NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

Abstract

CMIP5 simulations reveal that the frequency of extreme El Niño events doubles under the 1.5 °C Paris target, and continues to increase long after global temperatures stabilize due to emission reductions. Extreme La Niña events, however, see little change at either 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Guojian Wang & Wenju Cai & Bolan Gan & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Xiaopei Lin & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2017. "Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 568-572, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:8:d:10.1038_nclimate3351
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3351
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena & Jorge A. Bonilla, 2021. "Climatic shocks, air quality, and health at birth in Bogotá," Working Papers halshs-03429482, HAL.
    2. Geon-Il Kim & Ji-Hoon Oh & Na-Yeon Shin & Soon-Il An & Sang-Wook Yeh & Jongsoo Shin & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Huy Pham & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Priyantha Mudalige & Imad Moosa, 2019. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Singapore Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Halim Lee & Jaewon Son & Dayoon Joo & Jinhyeok Ha & Seongreal Yun & Chul-Hee Lim & Woo-Kyun Lee, 2020. "Sustainable Water Security Based on the SDG Framework: A Case Study of the 2019 Metro Manila Water Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.
    5. César Salazar & Andrés Acuña‐Duarte & José Maria Gil, 2023. "Drought shocks and price adjustments in local food markets in Chile: Do product quality and marketing channel matter?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 349-363, May.
    6. David J. Frame & Suzanne M. Rosier & Ilan Noy & Luke J. Harrington & Trevor Carey-Smith & Sarah N. Sparrow & Dáithí A. Stone & Samuel M. Dean, 2020. "Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 781-797, September.
    7. Sven Ove Hansson, 2018. "How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1820-1829, September.
    8. P. Santidrián Tomillo & L. G. Fonseca & M. Ward & N. Tankersley & N. J. Robinson & C. M. Orrego & F. V. Paladino & V. S. Saba, 2020. "The impacts of extreme El Niño events on sea turtle nesting populations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 163-176, March.
    9. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena & Jorge A. Bonilla, 2021. "Climatic shocks, air quality, and health at birth in Bogotá," PSE Working Papers halshs-03429482, HAL.

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