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Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy A. Myers

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Ryan C. Scott

    (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego
    Science Systems and Applications, Inc.)

  • Mark D. Zelinka

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Stephen A. Klein

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Joel R. Norris

    (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego)

  • Peter M. Caldwell

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

Abstract

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO2 doubling. Here, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m−2 K−1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy A. Myers & Ryan C. Scott & Mark D. Zelinka & Stephen A. Klein & Joel R. Norris & Peter M. Caldwell, 2021. "Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 501-507, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01039-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01039-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Kathleen A. Schiro & Hui Su & Fiaz Ahmed & Ni Dai & Clare E. Singer & Pierre Gentine & Gregory S. Elsaesser & Jonathan H. Jiang & Yong-Sang Choi & J. David Neelin, 2022. "Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Xianan Jiang & Hui Su & Jonathan H. Jiang & J. David Neelin & Longtao Wu & Yoko Tsushima & Gregory Elsaesser, 2023. "Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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