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Observational constraint on cloud feedbacks suggests moderate climate sensitivity

Author

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  • Grégory V. Cesana

    (Columbia University
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Anthony D. Del Genio

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Abstract

Global climate models predict warming in response to increasing GHG concentrations, partly due to decreased tropical low-level cloud cover and reflectance. We use satellite observations that discriminate stratocumulus from shallow cumulus clouds to separately evaluate their sensitivity to warming and constrain the tropical contribution to low-cloud feedback. We find an observationally inferred low-level cloud feedback two times smaller than a previous estimate. Shallow cumulus clouds are insensitive to warming, whereas global climate models exhibit a large positive cloud feedback in shallow cumulus regions. In contrast, stratocumulus clouds show sensitivity to warming and the tropical inversion layer strength, controlled by the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient. Models fail to reproduce the historical sea surface temperature gradient trends and therefore changes in inversion strength, generating an overestimate of the positive stratocumulus cloud feedback. Continued weak east Pacific warming would therefore produce a weaker low-cloud feedback and imply a more moderate climate sensitivity (3.47 ± 0.33 K) than many models predict.

Suggested Citation

  • Grégory V. Cesana & Anthony D. Del Genio, 2021. "Observational constraint on cloud feedbacks suggests moderate climate sensitivity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 213-218, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00970-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00970-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Kathleen A. Schiro & Hui Su & Fiaz Ahmed & Ni Dai & Clare E. Singer & Pierre Gentine & Gregory S. Elsaesser & Jonathan H. Jiang & Yong-Sang Choi & J. David Neelin, 2022. "Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Xianan Jiang & Hui Su & Jonathan H. Jiang & J. David Neelin & Longtao Wu & Yoko Tsushima & Gregory Elsaesser, 2023. "Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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