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Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability

Author

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  • Daokai Xue

    (Nanjing University)

  • Jian Lu

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • L. Ruby Leung

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Haiyan Teng

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Fengfei Song

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Tianjun Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yaocun Zhang

    (Nanjing University)

Abstract

The Asian monsoon provides the freshwater that a large population in Asia depends on, but how anthropogenic climate warming may alter this key water source remains unclear. This is partly due to the prevailing point-wise assessment of climate projections, even though climate change patterns are inherently organized by dynamics intrinsic to the climate system. Here, we assess the future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation by projecting the precipitation from several large ensemble simulations and CMIP6 simulations onto the two leading dynamical modes of internal variability. The result shows a remarkable agreement among the ensembles on the increasing trends and the increasing daily variability in both dynamical modes, with the projection pattern emerging as early as the late 2030 s. The increase of the daily variability of the modes heralds more monsoon-related hydrological extremes over some identifiable East Asian regions in the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Daokai Xue & Jian Lu & L. Ruby Leung & Haiyan Teng & Fengfei Song & Tianjun Zhou & Yaocun Zhang, 2023. "Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-39460-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39460-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Pfahl & P. A. O’Gorman & E. M. Fischer, 2017. "Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 423-427, June.
    2. Andrew G. Turner & H. Annamalai, 2012. "Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 587-595, August.
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    1. Lifei Lin & Chundi Hu & Bin Wang & Renguang Wu & Zeming Wu & Song Yang & Wenju Cai & Peiliang Li & Xuejun Xiong & Dake Chen, 2024. "Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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