IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i24p4644-d295081.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sajjad Ali

    (College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Li Gucheng

    (College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Liu Ying

    (College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
    Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Grain Industry, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, China)

  • Muhammad Ishaq

    (Agricultural Pricing and Trade Policy, Social Sciences Division, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan)

  • Tariq Shah

    (Department of Economics & Development Studies, University of Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 19130, Pakistan)

Abstract

This study aims to explore the casual relationship between agricultural production, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to examine the relationship between agricultural production, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions using time series data from 1960 to 2014. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips–Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests are used to check the stationarity of variables. The results show both short-run and long-run relationships between agricultural production, gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. From the short-run estimates, it is found that a 1% increase in barley and sorghum production will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 3% and 4%, respectively. The pairwise Granger causality test shows unidirectional causality of cotton, milled rice, and sorghum production with carbon dioxide emissions. Due to the aforementioned cause, it is essential to manage the effects of carbon dioxide emissions on agricultural production. Appropriate steps are needed to develop agricultural adaptation policies, improve irrigation facilities and introduce high-yielding and disease-resistant varieties of crops to ensure food security in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Sajjad Ali & Li Gucheng & Liu Ying & Muhammad Ishaq & Tariq Shah, 2019. "The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:24:p:4644-:d:295081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/24/4644/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/24/4644/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashley, Richard A. & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2015. "When is it justifiable to ignore explanatory variable endogeneity in a regression model?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 70-74.
    2. Barrios, Salvador & Ouattara, Bazoumana & Strobl, Eric, 2008. "The impact of climatic change on agricultural production: Is it different for Africa?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 287-298, August.
    3. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
    4. Yousuf, I. & Ghumman, A.R. & Hashmi, H.N. & Kamal, M.A., 2014. "Carbon emissions from power sector in Pakistan and opportunities to mitigate those," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 71-77.
    5. Fodha, Mouez & Zaghdoud, Oussama, 2010. "Economic growth and pollutant emissions in Tunisia: An empirical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 1150-1156, February.
    6. El Chami, D. & Daccache, A., 2015. "Assessing sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change scenarios in a humid climate — An integrated modelling framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 19-25.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Andrew G. Turner & H. Annamalai, 2012. "Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 587-595, August.
    9. Indur Goklany, 2007. "Integrated strategies to reduce vulnerability and advance adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 755-786, June.
    10. John Antonakis & Samuel Bendahan & Philippe Jacquart & Rafael Lalive, 2010. "On making causal claims : A review and recommendations," Post-Print hal-02313119, HAL.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    13. Robert S. Pindyck, 2011. "Fat Tails, Thin Tails, and Climate Change Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 258-274, Summer.
    14. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2013. "The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 262-267.
    15. Jalota, S.K. & Vashisht, B.B. & Kaur, Harsimran & Kaur, Samanpreet & Kaur, Prabhjyot, 2014. "Location specific climate change scenario and its impact on rice and wheat in Central Indian Punjab," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 77-86.
    16. Ashley Gorst & Ben Groom & Ali Dehlavi, 2015. "Crop productivity and adaptation to climate change in Pakistan," GRI Working Papers 189, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    17. Victor, Peter A., 2012. "Growth, degrowth and climate change: A scenario analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 206-212.
    18. Acaravci, Ali & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "On the relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5412-5420.
    19. Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza & Falahi, Mohammad Ali & Ashena, Malihe, 2010. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuels consumption in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5115-5120.
    20. Munir Ahmed & Ghulam Mustafa & Muhammad Iqbal, 2016. "Impact of Farm Households’ Adaptations to Climate Change on Food Security: Evidence from Different Agro-ecologies of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 561-588.
    21. Noman Arshed & Shukrillo Abduqayumov, 2016. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Wheat and Cotton in Major Districts of Punjab," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(10), pages 183-191, 10-2016.
    22. Nasir, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Faiz, 2011. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon emissions in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1857-1864, March.
    23. Kofi Adom, Philip & Bekoe, William & Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin & Mensah, Justice Tei & Botchway, Ebo, 2012. "Carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, industrial structure, and technical efficiency: Empirical evidence from Ghana, Senegal, and Morocco on the causal dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 314-325.
    24. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    25. Jalil, Abdul & Mahmud, Syed F., 2009. "Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5167-5172, December.
    26. Boutabba, Mohamed Amine, 2014. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 33-41.
    27. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin & Mohd, Saidatulakmal, 2012. "Economic growth and CO2 emissions in Malaysia: A cointegration analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 184-191.
    28. Food and Agriculture Organization, 2013. "The State of Food and Agriculture, 2013," Working Papers id:5511, eSocialSciences.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sohail Abbas & Shazia Kousar & Amber Pervaiz, 2021. "Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on CO2 emissions: an empirical evidence from Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13364-13381, September.
    2. Wen-Hsien Tsai, 2020. "Carbon Emission Reduction—Carbon Tax, Carbon Trading, and Carbon Offset," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-7, November.
    3. Yıldırım Bayazıt & Cengiz Koç, 2022. "The impact of forest fires on floods and erosion: Marmaris, Turkey," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(11), pages 13426-13445, November.
    4. Tomasz Rokicki & Marcin Ratajczak & Piotr Bórawski & Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska & Barbara Gradziuk & Piotr Gradziuk & Agnieszka Siedlecka, 2021. "Energy Self-Subsistence of Agriculture in EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Mohamed Mehana & Mohamed Abdelrahman & Yasmin Emadeldin & Jai S. Rohila & Raghupathy Karthikeyan, 2021. "Impact of Genetic Improvements of Rice on Its Water Use and Effects of Climate Variability in Egypt," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sajjad Ali & Liu Ying & Tariq Shah & Azam Tariq & Abbas Ali Chandio & Ihsan Ali, 2019. "Analysis of the Nexus of CO 2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Land under Cereal Crops and Agriculture Value-Added in Pakistan Using an ARDL Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Haouas, Ilham & Hoang, Thi Hong Van, 2019. "Economic growth and environmental degradation in Vietnam: Is the environmental Kuznets curve a complete picture?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 197-218.
    3. Seker, Fahri & Ertugrul, Hasan Murat & Cetin, Murat, 2015. "The impact of foreign direct investment on environmental quality: A bounds testing and causality analysis for Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 347-356.
    4. Boutabba, Mohamed Amine, 2014. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 33-41.
    5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Avik Sinha, 2019. "Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2emissions: a literature survey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 106-168, January.
    6. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    7. Al-Mulali, Usama & Saboori, Behnaz & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Vietnam," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 123-131.
    8. Mohamed Amine Boutabba, 2013. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Documents de recherche 13-05, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    9. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin, 2013. "Environmental degradation, economic growth and energy consumption: Evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 892-905.
    10. Pata, Ugur Korkut, 2018. "The influence of coal and noncarbohydrate energy consumption on CO2 emissions: Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1115-1123.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sinha, Avik, 2019. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emission: A survey of empirical literature," MPRA Paper 100257, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2019.
    12. Ertugrul, Hasan Murat & Çetin, Murat & Şeker, Fahri & Dogan, Eyüp, 2015. "The impact of trade openness on global carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from the top ten emitters among developing countries," MPRA Paper 97539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Mar 2016.
    13. Sofien Tiba & Mohamed Frikha, 2020. "EKC and Macroeconomics Aspects of Well-being: a Critical Vision for a Sustainable Future," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 1171-1197, September.
    14. Le Hoang Phong, 2019. "Globalization, Financial Development, and Environmental Degradation in the Presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 40-50.
    15. Aida Sy & Tony Tinker & Abdelkader Derbali & Lamia Jamel, 2016. "Economic growth, financial development, trade openness, and CO 2 emissions in European countries," African Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 155-179.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Environmental degradation in France: The effects of FDI, financial development, and energy innovations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 843-857.
    17. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    18. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    19. Omri, Anis & Daly, Saida & Rault, Christophe & Chaibi, Anissa, 2015. "Financial development, environmental quality, trade and economic growth: What causes what in MENA countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 242-252.
    20. Bastola, Umesh & Sapkota, Pratikshya, 2015. "Relationships among energy consumption, pollution emission, and economic growth in Nepal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 254-262.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:24:p:4644-:d:295081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.