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Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation

Author

Listed:
  • S. Pfahl

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)

  • P. A. O’Gorman

    (Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • E. M. Fischer

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)

Abstract

Regional projections of daily extreme precipitation are uncertain, but can be decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to improve understanding. While thermodynamics alone uniformly increase extreme precipitation, dynamical processes introduce regional variations.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Pfahl & P. A. O’Gorman & E. M. Fischer, 2017. "Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 423-427, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1038_nclimate3287
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3287
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daokai Xue & Jian Lu & L. Ruby Leung & Haiyan Teng & Fengfei Song & Tianjun Zhou & Yaocun Zhang, 2023. "Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Andrew Gronewold & Jenna Bednar & Marjorie Cort & Vianey Rueda & Michael Moore & Jon Allan, 2024. "Can continental transboundary compacts hold water?," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-4, December.
    3. Kandula V. Subrahmanyam & K. Kishore Kumar, 2022. "C-band polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar observations during an extreme precipitation event and associated dynamics over Peninsular India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1307-1322, November.
    4. Mingyu Park & Nathaniel C. Johnson & Thomas L. Delworth, 2024. "The driving of North American climate extremes by North Pacific stationary-transient wave interference," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Kui Xu & Chenyue Wang & Lingling Bin, 2023. "Compound flood models in coastal areas: a review of methods and uncertainty analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 469-496, March.
    6. Wenxia Zhang & Kalli Furtado & Tianjun Zhou & Peili Wu & Xiaolong Chen, 2022. "Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Kai Liu & Qianzhi Wang & Ming Wang & Elco E. Koks, 2023. "Global transportation infrastructure exposure to the change of precipitation in a warmer world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Melissa Rosa & Kyle Haines & Teddy Cruz & Fonna Forman, 2023. "A binational social vulnerability index (BSVI) for the San Diego-Tijuana region: mapping trans-boundary exposure to climate change for just and equitable adaptation planning," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 1-23, February.
    9. Bevacqua, Emanuele & Maraun, Douglas & Vousdoukas, Michalis I. & Voukouvalas, Evangelos & Vrac, Mathieu & Mentaschi, Lorenzo & Widmann, Martin, 2018. "Higher potential compound flood risk in Northern Europe under anthropogenic climate change," Earth Arxiv ta764, Center for Open Science.
    10. Omid Alizadeh & Morteza Babaei, 2022. "Seasonally dependent precipitation changes and their driving mechanisms in Southwest Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-16, April.
    11. Sumit Das & Gianvito Scaringi, 2021. "River flooding in a changing climate: rainfall-discharge trends, controlling factors, and susceptibility mapping for the Mahi catchment, Western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2439-2459, December.
    12. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. David J. Frame & Suzanne M. Rosier & Ilan Noy & Luke J. Harrington & Trevor Carey-Smith & Sarah N. Sparrow & Dáithí A. Stone & Samuel M. Dean, 2020. "Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 781-797, September.
    14. Othman, Abdullah & El-Saoud, Waleed A. & Habeebullah, Turki & Shaaban, Fathy & Abotalib, Abotalib Z., 2023. "Risk assessment of flash flood and soil erosion impacts on electrical infrastructures in overcrowded mountainous urban areas under climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    15. Zigeng Niu & Lan Feng & Xinxin Chen & Xiuping Yi, 2021. "Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-26, June.
    16. Lei Gu & Jiabo Yin & Pierre Gentine & Hui-Min Wang & Louise J. Slater & Sylvia C. Sullivan & Jie Chen & Jakob Zscheischler & Shenglian Guo, 2023. "Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Elizabeth J. Kendon & Erich M. Fischer & Chris J. Short, 2023. "Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.

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