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A predictable prospect of the South Asian summer monsoon

Author

Listed:
  • Tuantuan Zhang

    (Sun Yat-sen University, Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering (Zhuhai)
    Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Xingwen Jiang

    (China Meteorological Administration)

  • Song Yang

    (Sun Yat-sen University, Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering (Zhuhai)
    Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Junwen Chen

    (Shenzhen Wiselec Technology Co., Ltd.)

  • Zhenning Li

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Prediction of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) has remained a challenge for both scientific research and operational climate prediction for decades. By identifying two dominant modes of the SASM, here we show that the unsatisfactory prediction may be due to the fact that the existing SASM indices are mostly related to the less predictable second mode. The first mode, in fact, is highly predictable. It is physically linked to the variation of the Indian monsoon trough coupled with large rainfall anomalies over core monsoon zone and the northern Bay of Bengal. An index is constructed as a physical proxy of this first mode, which can be well predicted one season in advance, with an overall skill of 0.698 for 1979–2020. This result suggests a predictable prospect of the SASM, and we recommend the new index for real-time monitoring and prediction of the SASM.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuantuan Zhang & Xingwen Jiang & Song Yang & Junwen Chen & Zhenning Li, 2022. "A predictable prospect of the South Asian summer monsoon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34881-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34881-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bin Wang & Baoqiang Xiang & Juan Li & Peter J. Webster & Madhavan N. Rajeevan & Jian Liu & Kyung-Ja Ha, 2015. "Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, November.
    2. Andrew G. Turner & H. Annamalai, 2012. "Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 587-595, August.
    3. Robert Tibshirani, 2011. "Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso: a retrospective," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(3), pages 273-282, June.
    4. Bin Wang & Baoqiang Xiang & Juan Li & Peter J. Webster & Madhavan N. Rajeevan & Jian Liu & Kyung-Ja Ha, 2015. "Correction: Corrigendum: Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-1, November.
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