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Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate

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  • Kairui Feng

    (Princeton University)

  • Min Ouyang

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

  • Ning Lin

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have caused extensive power outages. The impacts of TC-caused blackouts may worsen in the future as TCs and heatwaves intensify. Here we couple TC and heatwave projections and power outage and recovery process analysis to investigate how TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard risk may vary in a changing climate, with Harris County, Texas as an example. We find that, under the high-emissions scenario RCP8.5, long-duration heatwaves following strong TCs may increase sharply. The expected percentage of Harris residents experiencing at least one longer-than-5-day TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard in a 20-year period could increase dramatically by a factor of 23 (from 0.8% to 18.2%) over the 21st century. We also reveal that a moderate enhancement of the power distribution network can significantly mitigate the compound hazard risk. Thus, climate adaptation actions, such as strategically undergrounding distribution network and developing distributed energy sources, are urgently needed to improve coastal power system resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Kairui Feng & Min Ouyang & Ning Lin, 2022. "Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32018-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32018-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Paul, Shuva & Poudyal, Abodh & Poudel, Shiva & Dubey, Anamika & Wang, Zhaoyu, 2024. "Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    3. Huang, Xiubing & Wang, Naiyu, 2024. "An adaptive nested dynamic downscaling strategy of wind-field for real-time risk forecast of power transmission systems during tropical cyclones," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

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