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Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

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  • Kerry Emanuel

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Winds of change No overall trend in hurricane frequency has been detected so far. But using a new measure of a hurricane power, Kerry Emanuel shows that the destructive potential of tropical cyclones has nearly doubled over the past 30 years, and is highly correlated with tropical sea-surface temperature. Storms are on average lasting longer and developing greater intensity than they did in the mid-1970s. Such a dramatic increase is matter for concern: future global warming would almost certainly increase sea-surface temperatures and hence the destructive potential of tropical cyclones. With populations in coastal areas also on the increase, more people would be at risk than ever before.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:436:y:2005:i:7051:d:10.1038_nature03906
    DOI: 10.1038/nature03906
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