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Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Reza Marsooli

    (Stevens Institute of Technology)

  • Ning Lin

    (Princeton University)

  • Kerry Emanuel

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Kairui Feng

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

One of the most destructive natural hazards, tropical cyclone (TC)–induced coastal flooding, will worsen under climate change. Here we conduct climatology–hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change (under RCP 8.5) on late 21st century flood hazards at the county level along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. We find that, under the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change, the historical 100-year flood level would occur annually in New England and mid-Atlantic regions and every 1–30 years in southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions in the late 21st century. The relative effect of TC climatology change increases continuously from New England, mid-Atlantic, southeast Atlantic, to the Gulf of Mexico, and the effect of TC climatology change is likely to be larger than the effect of SLR for over 40% of coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Kairui Feng, 2019. "Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-11755-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Simandjuntak, Daniel P. & Jaenicke, Edward C., 2021. "Consumer Food Stockpiling and Retail Recovery Before, During, and After U.S. Hurricanes," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313929, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Avantika Gori & Ning Lin & Dazhi Xi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 171-178, February.
    3. Qian Ke & Jiangshan Yin & Jeremy D. Bricker & Nicholas Savage & Erasmo Buonomo & Qinghua Ye & Paul Visser & Guangtao Dong & Shuai Wang & Zhan Tian & Laixiang Sun & Ralf Toumi & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, 2021. "An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 671-703, October.
    4. Lilai Xu & Shengping Ding & Vilas Nitivattananon & Jianxiong Tang, 2021. "Long-Term Dynamic of Land Reclamation and Its Impact on Coastal Flooding: A Case Study in Xiamen, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Jasper Verschuur & Dewi Bars & Caroline A. Katsman & Sierd de Vries & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof, 2020. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 859-876, September.
    6. Tunde Aderinto & Hua Li, 2020. "Conceptual Design and Simulation of a Self-Adjustable Heaving Point Absorber Based Wave Energy Converter," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-15, April.
    7. Clifford W. Cobb, 2020. "Foreword," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 79(1), pages 5-14, January.
    8. Nicholas Santella, 2023. "Climate related trends in US hazardous material releases caused by natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 735-756, January.
    9. Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Kevin Summers & Andrea Lamper & Kyle Buck, 2021. "National Hazards Vulnerability and the Remediation, Restoration and Revitalization of Contaminated Sites—2. RCRA Sites," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    11. Joakim Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Working Papers 2023.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    12. Meri Davlasheridze & Qin Fan & Wesley Highfield & Jiaochen Liang, 2021. "Economic impacts of storm surge events: examining state and national ripple effects," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Alam, Md. Shaharier & Kim, Kyusik & Horner, Mark W. & Alisan, Onur & Antwi, Richard & Ozguven, Eren Erman, 2024. "Large-scale modeling of hurricane flooding and disrupted infrastructure impacts on accessibility to critical facilities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    14. Kairui Feng & Min Ouyang & Ning Lin, 2022. "Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Vijay S. Limaye, 2021. "Making the climate crisis personal through a focus on human health," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-11, June.
    16. Ceferino, Luis & Lin, Ning & Xi, Dazhi, 2023. "Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    17. Julien Boulange & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Masahiro Tanoue & Toshinori Yamada, 2023. "Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 1855-1879, September.
    18. Hashemi, M.Reza & Kresning, Boma & Hashemi, Javad & Ginis, Isaac, 2021. "Assessment of hurricane generated loads on offshore wind farms; a closer look at most extreme historical hurricanes in New England," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 593-609.
    19. Bradt, Jacob T. & Kousky, Carolyn & Wing, Oliver E.J., 2021. "Voluntary purchases and adverse selection in the market for flood insurance," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Vladimir J. Alarcon & Anna C. Linhoss & Christopher R. Kelble & Paul F. Mickle & Gonzalo F. Sanchez-Banda & Fernando E. Mardonez-Meza & Joseph Bishop & Steven L. Ashby, 2022. "Coastal inundation under concurrent mean and extreme sea-level rise in Coral Gables, Florida, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2933-2962, April.
    21. Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2153-2171, December.

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