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Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories

Author

Listed:
  • Yong Ge

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Academy of Sciences)

  • Wen-Bin Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Academy of Sciences
    Lancaster University)

  • Xilin Wu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Academy of Sciences)

  • Corrine W. Ruktanonchai

    (Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech)

  • Haiyan Liu

    (South Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

  • Jianghao Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Academy of Sciences)

  • Yongze Song

    (Curtin University)

  • Mengxiao Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Academy of Sciences)

  • Wei Yan

    (Peking University Third Hospital)

  • Juan Yang

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education
    Fudan University)

  • Eimear Cleary

    (University of Southampton)

  • Sarchil H. Qader

    (University of Southampton
    University of Sulaimani; Sulaimani 334, Kurdistan Region)

  • Fatumah Atuhaire

    (University of Southampton
    University of Southampton)

  • Nick W. Ruktanonchai

    (Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech)

  • Andrew J. Tatem

    (University of Southampton)

  • Shengjie Lai

    (Fudan University
    University of Southampton
    University of Southampton)

Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42–62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Ge & Wen-Bin Zhang & Xilin Wu & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Haiyan Liu & Jianghao Wang & Yongze Song & Mengxiao Liu & Wei Yan & Juan Yang & Eimear Cleary & Sarchil H. Qader & Fatumah Atuhaire & Nic, 2022. "Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30897-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Yong Ge & Xilin Wu & Wenbin Zhang & Xiaoli Wang & Die Zhang & Jianghao Wang & Haiyan Liu & Zhoupeng Ren & Nick W. Ruktanonchai & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Eimear Cleary & Yongcheng Yao & Amy Wesolowsk, 2023. "Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Heinlein, Bastian & De Domenico, Manlio, 2023. "Unraveling the role of adapting risk perception during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    3. Lloyd A. C. Chapman & Maite Aubry & Noémie Maset & Timothy W. Russell & Edward S. Knock & John A. Lees & Henri-Pierre Mallet & Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau & Adam J. Kucharski, 2023. "Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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