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Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Huang

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Jionghua Wang

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Jixuan Cai

    (Tencent Inc.)

  • Shiqi Yao

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Paul Kay Sheung Chan

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Tony Hong-wing Tam

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Ying-Yi Hong

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Corrine W. Ruktanonchai

    (University of Southampton
    Virginia Tech)

  • Alessandra Carioli

    (University of Southampton)

  • Jessica R. Floyd

    (University of Southampton)

  • Nick W. Ruktanonchai

    (University of Southampton
    Virginia Tech)

  • Weizhong Yang

    (Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College)

  • Zhongjie Li

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Andrew J. Tatem

    (University of Southampton)

  • Shengjie Lai

    (University of Southampton
    Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College
    Fudan University)

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed substantial challenges to the formulation of preventive interventions, particularly since the effects of physical distancing measures and upcoming vaccines on reducing susceptible social contacts and eventually halting transmission remain unclear. Here, using anonymized mobile geolocation data in China, we devise a mobility-associated social contact index to quantify the impact of both physical distancing and vaccination measures in a unified way. Building on this index, our epidemiological model reveals that vaccination combined with physical distancing can contain resurgences without relying on stay-at-home restrictions, whereas a gradual vaccination process alone cannot achieve this. Further, for cities with medium population density, vaccination can reduce the duration of physical distancing by 36% to 78%, whereas for cities with high population density, infection numbers can be well-controlled through moderate physical distancing. These findings improve our understanding of the joint effects of vaccination and physical distancing with respect to a city’s population density and social contact patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Huang & Jionghua Wang & Jixuan Cai & Shiqi Yao & Paul Kay Sheung Chan & Tony Hong-wing Tam & Ying-Yi Hong & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Alessandra Carioli & Jessica R. Floyd & Nick W. Ruktanonchai & , 2021. "Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 695-705, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:5:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1038_s41562-021-01063-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01063-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Yang & Valentina Marziano & Xiaowei Deng & Giorgio Guzzetta & Juanjuan Zhang & Filippo Trentini & Jun Cai & Piero Poletti & Wen Zheng & Wei Wang & Qianhui Wu & Zeyao Zhao & Kaige Dong & Guangjie , 2021. "Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 1009-1020, August.
    2. Zhou, Xin & Liao, Wenzhu, 2023. "Research on demand forecasting and distribution of emergency medical supplies using an agent-based model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    3. Bo Huang & Zhihui Huang & Chen Chen & Jian Lin & Tony Tam & Yingyi Hong & Sen Pei, 2022. "Social vulnerability amplifies the disparate impact of mobility on COVID-19 transmissibility across the United States," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. King King Li & Ying-Yi Hong & Bo Huang & Tony Tam, 2022. "Social preferences before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in China," Post-Print hal-03899653, HAL.
    5. Benjamin Faucher & Rania Assab & Jonathan Roux & Daniel Levy-Bruhl & Cécile Tran Kiem & Simon Cauchemez & Laura Zanetti & Vittoria Colizza & Pierre-Yves Boëlle & Chiara Poletto, 2022. "Agent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:6:p:1313-1333 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fırat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2024. "Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: A Unified Causal Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 793-833, February.
    8. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:6:p:1313-1333 is not listed on IDEAS

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