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Impacts of social distancing policy and vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Korea

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  • Kim, Kijin
  • Kim, Soyoung
  • Lee, Donghyun
  • Park, Cyn-Young

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic impact of social distancing policy on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection control, mobility of people, and consumption expenditures in the Republic of Korea. We employ structural and threshold vector autoregressive (VAR) models using big-data-driven mobility data, credit card expenditure, and a social distancing index. We find that the social distancing policy significantly reduces the spread of COVID-19, but there exists a significant, growing trade-off between infection control and economic activity over time. When the level of stringency in social distancing is already high, its marginal effect on mobility is estimated to be smaller than when social distancing stringency is low. The effect of social distancing also becomes secondary after vaccination. Increased vaccination is found to significantly reduce the critical cases while it increases visitors and consumption expenditures. The results also show that the effect of social distancing policy on mobility reduction is strongest among the population of age under 20 and the weakest among the population of age over 60.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Kijin & Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Donghyun & Park, Cyn-Young, 2023. "Impacts of social distancing policy and vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Korea," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:150:y:2023:i:c:s0165188923000489
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104642
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Social distancing policy; Mobility; Vaccination; Republic of Korea; Structural VAR; Threshold VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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