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Short- and medium-term impacts of strict anti-contagion policies on non-COVID-19 mortality in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jinlei Qi

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Dandan Zhang

    (Peking University
    Peking University)

  • Xiang Zhang

    (Peking University)

  • Tanakao Takana

    (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Yuhang Pan

    (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Peng Yin

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Jiangmei Liu

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Shuocen Liu

    (Peking University)

  • George F. Gao

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Guojun He

    (University of Hong Kong)

  • Maigeng Zhou

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

Abstract

The effects of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) public health policies on non-COVID-19-related mortality are unclear. Here, using death registries based on 300 million Chinese people and a difference-in-differences design, we find that China’s strict anti-contagion policies during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced non-COVID-19 mortality outside Wuhan (by 4.6%). The health benefits persisted and became even greater after the measures were loosened: mortality was reduced by 12.5% in the medium term. Significant changes in people’s behaviours (for example, wearing masks and practising social distancing) and reductions in air pollution and traffic accidents could have driven these results. We estimate that 54,000 lives could have been saved from non-COVID-19 causes during the 50 days of strict policies and 293,000 in the subsequent 115 days. The results suggest that virus countermeasures not only effectively controlled COVID-19 in China but also brought about unintended and substantial public health benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinlei Qi & Dandan Zhang & Xiang Zhang & Tanakao Takana & Yuhang Pan & Peng Yin & Jiangmei Liu & Shuocen Liu & George F. Gao & Guojun He & Maigeng Zhou, 2022. "Short- and medium-term impacts of strict anti-contagion policies on non-COVID-19 mortality in China," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 55-63, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:6:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41562-021-01189-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01189-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Cai, Weicheng & Zhou, Yi, 2022. "Men smoke less under the COVID-19 closure policies: The role of altruism," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).

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