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Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants

Author

Listed:
  • Yong Ge

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Jiangxi Normal University
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xilin Wu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Wenbin Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Southampton)

  • Xiaoli Wang

    (Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control)

  • Die Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Jiangxi Normal University)

  • Jianghao Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Haiyan Liu

    (Marine Data Center, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

  • Zhoupeng Ren

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Nick W. Ruktanonchai

    (Virginia Tech)

  • Corrine W. Ruktanonchai

    (Virginia Tech)

  • Eimear Cleary

    (University of Southampton)

  • Yongcheng Yao

    (University of Southampton
    Zhengzhou Normal University)

  • Amy Wesolowski

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

  • Derek A. T. Cummings

    (University of Florida)

  • Zhongjie Li

    (Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College)

  • Andrew J. Tatem

    (University of Southampton)

  • Shengjie Lai

    (University of Southampton
    University of Southampton
    Fudan University)

Abstract

Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential for preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 outbreaks observed in China from April 2020 to May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative intervention effectiveness by their reduction in instantaneous reproduction number. We found that, overall, social distancing measures (38% reduction, 95% prediction interval 31-45%), face masks (30%, 17-42%) and close contact tracing (28%, 24-31%) were most effective. Contact tracing was crucial in containing outbreaks during the initial phases, while social distancing measures became increasingly prominent as the spread persisted. In addition, infections with higher transmissibility and a shorter latent period posed more challenges for these measures. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the effects of public-health measures for zeroing out emerging contagions in different contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Ge & Xilin Wu & Wenbin Zhang & Xiaoli Wang & Die Zhang & Jianghao Wang & Haiyan Liu & Zhoupeng Ren & Nick W. Ruktanonchai & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Eimear Cleary & Yongcheng Yao & Amy Wesolowsk, 2023. "Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-40940-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40940-4
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