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The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variants

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  • Choi, Youngran
  • Zou, Li
  • Dresner, Martin

Abstract

We investigate the impact of air travel mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission by tracing the announced arrival time of COVID-19 and its major variants in countries around the world. We find that air travel intensity to a country, “effective distance” as measured by international air traffic, is generally a significant predictor for the announced viral arrival time. The level of healthcare infrastructure in a country is less important at predicting the initial transmission and detection time of a virus. A policy variable, notably the percentage reduction of total inbound seats in response to a viral outbreak, is largely ineffective at delaying viral transmission and discovery time. These findings suggest that air network connectivity is a major contributor to the speed of viral transmission. However, government attempts to delay viral transmission by reducing air network connectivity after the virus is first discovered are largely ineffective.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Youngran & Zou, Li & Dresner, Martin, 2022. "The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variants," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 22-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:127:y:2022:i:c:p:22-30
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.08.009
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    3. Wandelt, Sebastian & Sun, Xiaoqian & Zhang, Anming, 2023. "On the contagion leakage via incoming flights during China’s aviation policies in the fight against COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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