IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-30106-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation

Author

Listed:
  • Ziming Chen

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Tianjun Zhou

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS))

  • Xiaolong Chen

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS))

  • Wenxia Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Lixia Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS))

  • Mingna Wu

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Liwei Zou

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) sustains billions of people living in many developing countries covering West Africa and Asia, vulnerable to climate change. Future increase in AfroASM precipitation has been projected by current state-of-the-art climate models, but large inter-model spread exists. Here we show that the projection spread is related to present-day interhemispheric thermal contrast (ITC). Based on 30 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find models with a larger ITC trend during 1981–2014 tend to project a greater precipitation increase. Since most models overestimate present-day ITC trends, emergent constraint indicates precipitation increase in constrained projection is reduced to 70% of the raw projection, with the largest reduction in West Africa (49%). The land area experiencing significant increases of precipitation (runoff) is 57% (66%) of the raw projection. Smaller increases of precipitation will likely reduce flooding risk, while posing a challenge to future water resources management.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziming Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Xiaolong Chen & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang & Mingna Wu & Liwei Zou, 2022. "Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30106-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30106-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30106-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-30106-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alex Hall & Peter Cox & Chris Huntingford & Stephen Klein, 2019. "Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(4), pages 269-278, April.
    2. Shang-Ping Xie & Clara Deser & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Matthew Collins & Thomas L. Delworth & Alex Hall & Ed Hawkins & Nathaniel C. Johnson & Christophe Cassou & Alessandra Giannini & Masahiro Watanabe, 2015. "Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 921-930, October.
    3. Xiaolong Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Peili Wu & Zhun Guo & Minghuai Wang, 2020. "Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Chunzai Wang & Liping Zhang & Sang-Ki Lee & Lixin Wu & Carlos R. Mechoso, 2014. "A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 201-205, March.
    5. Femke J. M. M. Nijsse & Peter M. Cox & Chris Huntingford & Mark S. Williamson, 2019. "Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(8), pages 598-601, August.
    6. Claudia Tebaldi & Julie Arblaster, 2014. "Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 459-471, February.
    7. Wenxia Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Liwei Zou & Lixia Zhang & Xiaolong Chen, 2018. "Reduced exposure to extreme precipitation from 0.5 °C less warming in global land monsoon regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Peter M. Cox & Chris Huntingford & Mark S. Williamson, 2018. "Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 553(7688), pages 319-322, January.
    9. E. M. Fischer & U. Beyerle & R. Knutti, 2013. "Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(12), pages 1033-1038, December.
    10. Gen Li & Shang-Ping Xie & Chao He & Zesheng Chen, 2017. "Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 708-712, October.
    11. Jong-Yeon Park & Jürgen Bader & Daniela Matei, 2015. "Northern-hemispheric differential warming is the key to understanding the discrepancies in the projected Sahel rainfall," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, May.
    12. Tao Wang & Yutong Zhao & Chaoyi Xu & Philippe Ciais & Dan Liu & Hui Yang & Shilong Piao & Tandong Yao, 2021. "Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 219-225, March.
    13. Myles R. Allen & William J. Ingram, 2002. "Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 419(6903), pages 224-232, September.
    14. Thomas L. Frölicher & Erich M. Fischer & Nicolas Gruber, 2018. "Marine heatwaves under global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7718), pages 360-364, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Wenyu Zhou & L. Ruby Leung & Nicholas Siler & Jian Lu, 2023. "Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Wenxia Zhang & Kalli Furtado & Tianjun Zhou & Peili Wu & Xiaolong Chen, 2022. "Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi & Mohammad Reza Najafi & Harsimrenjit Singh & Markus Schnorbus, 2021. "Spatial and temporal changes in climate extremes over northwestern North America: the influence of internal climate variability and external forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Yangyang Xu & Lei Lin, 2017. "Pattern scaling based projections for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration: sensitivity to composition of GHGs and aerosols forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 635-647, February.
    6. Qin Ji & Jianping Yang & Can Wang & Hongju Chen & Qingshan He & Zhenqi Sun & Quntao Duan & Yao Li, 2021. "The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Kai Liu & Qianzhi Wang & Ming Wang & Elco E. Koks, 2023. "Global transportation infrastructure exposure to the change of precipitation in a warmer world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Miranda J. Fix & Daniel Cooley & Stephan R. Sain & Claudia Tebaldi, 2018. "A comparison of U.S. precipitation extremes under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 with an application of pattern scaling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 335-347, February.
    9. Yan Yu & Jiafu Mao & Stan D. Wullschleger & Anping Chen & Xiaoying Shi & Yaoping Wang & Forrest M. Hoffman & Yulong Zhang & Eric Pierce, 2022. "Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini, 2017. "Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 249-257, November.
    11. Pujun Liang & Wei Xu & Yunjia Ma & Xiujuan Zhao & Lianjie Qin, 2017. "Increase of Elderly Population in the Rainstorm Hazard Areas of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, August.
    12. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    13. Sakineh Khansalari & Atefeh Mohammadi, 2024. "Probabilistic projection of extreme precipitation changes over Iran by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-26, July.
    14. Baoni Li & Lihua Xiong & Quan Zhang & Shilei Chen & Han Yang & Shuhui Guo, 2022. "Effects of land use/cover change on atmospheric humidity in three urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 577-613, August.
    15. Jun-Young Park & Fabian Schloesser & Axel Timmermann & Dipayan Choudhury & June-Yi Lee & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, 2023. "Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Festo Richard Silungwe & Frieder Graef & Sonoko Dorothea Bellingrath-Kimura & Emmanuel A Chilagane & Siza Donald Tumbo & Fredrick Cassian Kahimba & Marcos Alberto Lana, 2019. "Modelling Rainfed Pearl Millet Yield Sensitivity to Abiotic Stresses in Semi-Arid Central Tanzania, Eastern Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-18, August.
    17. Peng Jiang & Zhongbo Yu & Mahesh R. Gautam & Kumud Acharya, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4807-4821, October.
    18. Christoph Schär & Nikolina Ban & Erich M. Fischer & Jan Rajczak & Jürg Schmidli & Christoph Frei & Filippo Giorgi & Thomas R. Karl & Elizabeth J. Kendon & Albert M. G. Klein Tank & Paul A. O’Gorman & , 2016. "Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 201-216, July.
    19. Xuezhi Tan & Xinxin Wu & Zeqin Huang & Jianyu Fu & Xuejin Tan & Simin Deng & Yaxin Liu & Thian Yew Gan & Bingjun Liu, 2023. "Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Sauterey, Boris & Gland, Guillaume Le & Cermeño, Pedro & Aumont, Olivier & Lévy, Marina & Vallina, Sergio M., 2023. "Phytoplankton adaptive resilience to climate change collapses in case of extreme events – A modeling study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30106-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.