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Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Hall

    (University of California — Los Angeles)

  • Peter Cox

    (University of Exeter)

  • Chris Huntingford

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Stephen Klein

    (PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

Abstract

In recent years, an evaluation technique for Earth System Models (ESMs) has arisen—emergent constraints (ECs)—which rely on strong statistical relationships between aspects of current climate and future change across an ESM ensemble. Combining the EC relationship with observations could reduce uncertainty surrounding future change. Here, we articulate a framework to assess ECs, and provide indicators whereby a proposed EC may move from a strong statistical relationship to confirmation. The primary indicators are verified mechanisms and out-of-sample testing. Confirmed ECs have the potential to improve ESMs by focusing attention on the variables most relevant to climate projections. Looking forward, there may be undiscovered ECs for extremes and teleconnections, and ECs may help identify climate system tipping points.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Hall & Peter Cox & Chris Huntingford & Stephen Klein, 2019. "Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(4), pages 269-278, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0436-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yan Yu & Jiafu Mao & Stan D. Wullschleger & Anping Chen & Xiaoying Shi & Yaoping Wang & Forrest M. Hoffman & Yulong Zhang & Eric Pierce, 2022. "Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. D. M. Smith & R. Eade & M. B. Andrews & H. Ayres & A. Clark & S. Chripko & C. Deser & N. J. Dunstone & J. García-Serrano & G. Gastineau & L. S. Graff & S. C. Hardiman & B. He & L. Hermanson & T. Jung , 2022. "Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Ziming Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Xiaolong Chen & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang & Mingna Wu & Liwei Zou, 2022. "Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Wenyu Zhou & L. Ruby Leung & Nicholas Siler & Jian Lu, 2023. "Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Wenxia Zhang & Kalli Furtado & Tianjun Zhou & Peili Wu & Xiaolong Chen, 2022. "Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Kailiang Yu & Philippe Ciais & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Zhihua Liu & Han Y. H. Chen & Jonathan Barichivich & Craig D. Allen & Hui Yang & Yuanyuan Huang & Ashley P. Ballantyne, 2022. "Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Theodore G. Shepherd, 2021. "Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in climate-change science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-19, November.
    8. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Irina Melnikova & Tokuta Yokohata & Akihiko Ito & Kazuya Nishina & Kaoru Tachiiri & Hideo Shiogama, 2024. "Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    10. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. King-Fai Li & Ka-Kit Tung, 2023. "Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.

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