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Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets

Author

Listed:
  • Tao Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yutong Zhao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Chaoyi Xu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Dan Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Hui Yang

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Peking University)

  • Tandong Yao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Rivers originating in the Tibetan Plateau provide freshwater to downstream populations, yet runoff projections from warming are unclear due to precipitation uncertainties. Here, we use a historical atmospheric circulation–precipitation relationship to constrain future modelled wet-season precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. Our constraint reduces precipitation increases to half of those from the unconstrained ensemble and reduces spread by around a factor of three. This constrained precipitation is used with estimated glacier melt contributions to constrain future runoff for seven rivers. We estimate runoff increases of 1.0–7.2% at the end of the twenty-first century for global mean warming of 1.5–4 °C above pre-industrial levels. Because population projections diverge across basins, this runoff increase will reduce the population fraction living under water scarcity conditions in the Yangtze and Yellow basins but not in the Indus and Ganges basins, necessitating improved water security through climate change adaptation policies in these regions at higher risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Wang & Yutong Zhao & Chaoyi Xu & Philippe Ciais & Dan Liu & Hui Yang & Shilong Piao & Tandong Yao, 2021. "Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 219-225, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00974-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00974-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziming Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Xiaolong Chen & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang & Mingna Wu & Liwei Zou, 2022. "Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Guo, Jingxian & Li, Runkui & Cai, Panli & Xiao, Zhen & Fu, Haiyu & Guo, Tongze & Wang, Tianyi & Zhang, Xiaoping & Wang, Jiancheng & Song, Xianfeng, 2024. "Risk in solar energy: Spatio-temporal instability and extreme low-light events in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    3. Tong Cui & Yukun Li & Long Yang & Yi Nan & Kunbiao Li & Mahmut Tudaji & Hongchang Hu & Di Long & Muhammad Shahid & Ammara Mubeen & Zhihua He & Bin Yong & Hui Lu & Chao Li & Guangheng Ni & Chunhong Hu , 2023. "Non-monotonic changes in Asian Water Towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Chunsheng Wu, 2022. "Study on the Spatial Differences in Land-Use Change and Driving Factors in Tibet," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.

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