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Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes

Author

Listed:
  • E. M. Fischer

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

  • U. Beyerle

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

  • R. Knutti

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

Abstract

There are large uncertainties associated with the projection of climate extremes. This study shows that the uncertainties are mainly due to internal climate variability. However, model projections are consistent when averaged across regions, allowing robust projection of future extremes.

Suggested Citation

  • E. M. Fischer & U. Beyerle & R. Knutti, 2013. "Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(12), pages 1033-1038, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:12:d:10.1038_nclimate2051
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2051
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    Cited by:

    1. Pujun Liang & Wei Xu & Yunjia Ma & Xiujuan Zhao & Lianjie Qin, 2017. "Increase of Elderly Population in the Rainstorm Hazard Areas of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Jarrett, Uchechukwu & Miller, Steve & Mohtadi, Hamid, 2023. "Dry spells and global crop production: A multi-stressor and multi-timescale analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini, 2017. "Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 249-257, November.
    4. Franzke, Christian L.E., 2021. "Towards the development of economic damage functions for weather and climate extremes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Rutger Dankers & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, 2020. "Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1379-1397, December.
    6. Ziming Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Xiaolong Chen & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang & Mingna Wu & Liwei Zou, 2022. "Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Theodore G. Shepherd & Emily Boyd & Raphael A. Calel & Sandra C. Chapman & Suraje Dessai & Ioana M. Dima-West & Hayley J. Fowler & Rachel James & Douglas Maraun & Olivia Martius & Catherine A. Senior , 2018. "Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 555-571, December.
    8. Bruce Hewitson & Katinka Waagsaether & Jan Wohland & Kate Kloppers & Teizeen Kara, 2017. "Climate information websites: an evolving landscape," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(5), September.
    9. Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi & Mohammad Reza Najafi & Harsimrenjit Singh & Markus Schnorbus, 2021. "Spatial and temporal changes in climate extremes over northwestern North America: the influence of internal climate variability and external forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-19, March.
    10. Thandi Kapwata & Michael T. Gebreslasie & Angela Mathee & Caradee Yael Wright, 2018. "Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-16, May.
    11. Alessia Cogato & Franco Meggio & Massimiliano De Antoni Migliorati & Francesco Marinello, 2019. "Extreme Weather Events in Agriculture: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, May.
    12. Kai Liu & Qianzhi Wang & Ming Wang & Elco E. Koks, 2023. "Global transportation infrastructure exposure to the change of precipitation in a warmer world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. Yusuke Satoh & Kei Yoshimura & Yadu Pokhrel & Hyungjun Kim & Hideo Shiogama & Tokuta Yokohata & Naota Hanasaki & Yoshihide Wada & Peter Burek & Edward Byers & Hannes Müller Schmied & Dieter Gerten & S, 2022. "The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.
    15. Miguel A. Lovino & María Josefina Pierrestegui & Omar V. Müller & Ernesto Hugo Berbery & Gabriela V. Müller & Max Pasten, 2021. "Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-24, February.
    16. Giovanni Forzieri & Luc Feyen & Simone Russo & Michalis Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Alfieri & Stephen Outten & Mirco Migliavacca & Alessandra Bianchi & Rodrigo Rojas & Alba Cid, 2016. "Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 105-119, July.
    17. Andreas Hoy & Nils Feske & Petr Štěpánek & Petr Skalák & Andreas Schmitt & Petra Schneider, 2018. "Climatic Changes and Their Relation to Weather Types in a Transboundary Mountainous Region in Central Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-30, June.
    18. Zheng, Zhonghua & Zhao, Lei & Oleson, Keith W., 2020. "Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves," Earth Arxiv f5pwa, Center for Open Science.
    19. Yulong Yao & Wei Zhang & Ben Kirtman, 2023. "Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-20, October.
    20. K. W. Oleson & G. B. Anderson & B. Jones & S. A. McGinnis & B. Sanderson, 2018. "Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 377-392, February.
    21. S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick & C. J. White & L. V. Alexander & D. Argüeso & G. Boschat & T. Cowan & J. P. Evans & M. Ekström & E. C. J. Oliver & A. Phatak & A. Purich, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 101-114, November.

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