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Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Author

Listed:
  • Gen Li

    (State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shang-Ping Xie

    (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego
    Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Chao He

    (Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology (ITMM), China Meteorological Administration (CMA))

  • Zesheng Chen

    (State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Climate models typically predict an increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall with anthropogenic warming. Correcting for precipitation biases in the tropical western Pacific using an emergent constraint methodology, however, reduces the magnitude of these increases by ∼50%.

Suggested Citation

  • Gen Li & Shang-Ping Xie & Chao He & Zesheng Chen, 2017. "Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 708-712, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:10:d:10.1038_nclimate3387
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3387
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziming Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Xiaolong Chen & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang & Mingna Wu & Liwei Zou, 2022. "Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Wenxia Zhang & Kalli Furtado & Tianjun Zhou & Peili Wu & Xiaolong Chen, 2022. "Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Kashif Haleem & Afed Ullah Khan & Jehanzeb Khan & Abdulnoor A. J. Ghanim & Ahmed M. Al-Areeq, 2023. "Evaluating Future Streamflow Patterns under SSP245 Scenarios: Insights from CMIP6," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.

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