IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i7p3633-d523699.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Qin Ji

    (State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Jianping Yang

    (State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Can Wang

    (School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Hongju Chen

    (State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Qingshan He

    (State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Zhenqi Sun

    (State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Quntao Duan

    (College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Yao Li

    (State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract

As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been warming significantly, and the instability of extreme events related to climate and weather has enhanced exceptionally in recent decades. These changes have posed increasingly severe impacts on the population over the TP. So far, however, the impacts on the population have not been assessed systematically and comprehensively from the perspective of risk. In this paper, the hazard of climate change was assessed from a fresh look, not only considering extreme changes of air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, but also their changes in mean and fluctuation, using daily meteorological data from 1961–2015. The population exposure and vulnerability to climate change were then evaluated using demographic data and considering population scale and structure. Finally, the population risk over the TP to climate change was quantitatively assessed within the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results showed that the climate change hazard was mainly at medium and heavy levels, in areas accounting for 64.60% of the total. The population exposure was relatively low; the land area at slight and light levels accounted for 83.94%, but high in the eastern edge area of the TP. The population vulnerability was mostly at medium and heavy levels, and the non-agricultural population rate was the key factor affecting the population vulnerability. Generally, the overall population risk over the TP was not very high: the number of counties with heavy and very heavy risk only accounted for 24.29%, and land area was less than 5%. However, more than 40% of the population was in high-risk areas, located in the eastern edge area of the TP. Population exposure was the decisive factor of the population risk to climate change, and high population exposure might lead to high risk. These findings were potentially valuable to improve cognition of risk, develop proactive risk mitigation strategies, and ensure sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin Ji & Jianping Yang & Can Wang & Hongju Chen & Qingshan He & Zhenqi Sun & Quntao Duan & Yao Li, 2021. "The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:7:p:3633-:d:523699
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3633/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3633/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    2. Harlan, Sharon L. & Brazel, Anthony J. & Prashad, Lela & Stefanov, William L. & Larsen, Larissa, 2006. "Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(11), pages 2847-2863, December.
    3. Yukiko Hirabayashi & Roobavannan Mahendran & Sujan Koirala & Lisako Konoshima & Dai Yamazaki & Satoshi Watanabe & Hyungjun Kim & Shinjiro Kanae, 2013. "Global flood risk under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 816-821, September.
    4. Tandong Yao & Lonnie Thompson & Wei Yang & Wusheng Yu & Yang Gao & Xuejun Guo & Xiaoxin Yang & Keqin Duan & Huabiao Zhao & Baiqing Xu & Jiancheng Pu & Anxin Lu & Yang Xiang & Dambaru B. Kattel & Danie, 2012. "Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 663-667, September.
    5. Wenxia Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Liwei Zou & Lixia Zhang & Xiaolong Chen, 2018. "Reduced exposure to extreme precipitation from 0.5 °C less warming in global land monsoon regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Jieming Chou & Tian Xian & Runze Zhao & Yuan Xu & Fan Yang & Mingyang Sun, 2019. "Drought Risk Assessment and Estimation in Vulnerable Eco-Regions of China: Under the Background of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-14, August.
    7. G. Myhre & B. H. Samset & Ø. Hodnebrog & T. Andrews & O. Boucher & G. Faluvegi & D. Fläschner & P. M. Forster & M. Kasoar & V. Kharin & A. Kirkevåg & J.-F. Lamarque & D. Olivié & T. B. Richardson & D., 2018. "Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Anne M. van Valkengoed & Linda Steg, 2019. "Meta-analyses of factors motivating climate change adaptation behaviour," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 158-163, February.
    9. Mathew C. Schmidtlein & Roland C. Deutsch & Walter W. Piegorsch & Susan L. Cutter, 2008. "A Sensitivity Analysis of the Social Vulnerability Index," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 1099-1114, August.
    10. Michael P. Cameron, 2017. "Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/03, University of Waikato.
    11. Myles R. Allen & William J. Ingram, 2002. "Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 419(6903), pages 224-232, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franziska Piontek & Matthias Kalkuhl & Elmar Kriegler & Anselm Schultes & Marian Leimbach & Ottmar Edenhofer & Nico Bauer, 2019. "Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1357-1385, August.
    2. Dayang Wang & Dagang Wang & Chongxun Mo & Yi Du, 2021. "Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1585-1608, September.
    3. Jia, Kun & Yang, Yanzhao & Dong, Guanglong & Zhang, Chao & Lang, Tingting, 2021. "Variation and determining factor of winter wheat water requirements under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    4. Ziming Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Xiaolong Chen & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang & Mingna Wu & Liwei Zou, 2022. "Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Matthias Garschagen & Deepal Doshi & Jonathan Reith & Michael Hagenlocher, 2021. "Global patterns of disaster and climate risk—an analysis of the consistency of leading index-based assessments and their results," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Lianlong Ma & Dong Huang & Xinyu Jiang & Xiaozhou Huang, 2022. "Analysis of Influencing Factors of Urban Community Function Loss in China under Flood Disaster Based on Social Network Analysis Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-14, September.
    7. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    8. Linsenmeier, Manuel & Shrader, Jeffrey G., 2023. "Global inequalities in weather forecasts," SocArXiv 7e2jf, Center for Open Science.
    9. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Erica Perego & Lionel Fontagné & Gianluca Santoni, 2022. "MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 172, pages 168-189.
    12. Wang, Yutao & Sun, Mingxing & Song, Baimin, 2017. "Public perceptions of and willingness to pay for sponge city initiatives in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 11-20.
    13. Xin Wen & Ana María Alarcón Ferreira & Lynn M. Rae & Hirmand Saffari & Zafar Adeel & Laura A. Bakkensen & Karla M. Méndez Estrada & Gregg M. Garfin & Renee A. McPherson & Ernesto Franco Vargas, 2022. "A Comprehensive Methodology for Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Floods: An Application to Canada, Mexico, and the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-27, October.
    14. Otto Brøns-Petersen & Søren Havn Gjedsted, 2021. "Climate change and institutional change: what is the relative importance for economic performance?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(2), pages 333-360, April.
    15. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    16. Haixing Liu & Yuntao Wang & Chi Zhang & Albert S. Chen & Guangtao Fu, 2018. "Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 1-18, October.
    17. Serhan Cevik, 2024. "Climate change and energy security: the dilemma or opportunity of the century?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 26(3), pages 653-672, July.
    18. Rei Itsukushima & Yohei Ogahara & Yuki Iwanaga & Tatsuro Sato, 2018. "Investigating the Influence of Various Stormwater Runoff Control Facilities on Runoff Control Efficiency in a Small Catchment Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-12, February.
    19. Yifeng Xie & Haitao Wu & Ruikuan Yao, 2023. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Urban–Rural Income Gap in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, August.
    20. Violeta Mihaela Dincă & Mihail Busu & Zoltan Nagy-Bege, 2022. "Determinants with Impact on Romanian Consumers’ Energy-Saving Habits," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:7:p:3633-:d:523699. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.