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Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard

Author

Listed:
  • Avantika Gori

    (Princeton University)

  • Ning Lin

    (Princeton University)

  • Dazhi Xi

    (Princeton University)

  • Kerry Emanuel

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but the current and future TC rainfall–surge joint hazard has not been well quantified. Using a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides, we show drastic increases in the joint hazard from historical to projected future (SSP5–8.5) conditions. The frequency of joint extreme events (exceeding both hazards’ historical 100-year levels) may increase by 7–36-fold in the southern US and 30–195-fold in the Northeast by 2100. This increase in joint hazard is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast, largely due to rainfall increases. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Avantika Gori & Ning Lin & Dazhi Xi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 171-178, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01272-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01272-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carlynn Fagnant & Avantika Gori & Antonia Sebastian & Philip B. Bedient & Katherine B. Ensor, 2020. "Characterizing spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in Southeast Texas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1597-1621, November.
    2. Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Kairui Feng, 2019. "Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Christopher M. Little & Radley M. Horton & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Gabriele Villarini, 2015. "Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1114-1120, December.
    4. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Michael Oppenheimer & Erik Vanmarcke, 2012. "Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 462-467, June.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Thomas R. Knutson & Joseph J. Sirutis & Morris A. Bender & Robert E. Tuleya & Benjamin A. Schenkel, 2022. "Dynamical downscaling projections of late twenty-first-century U.S. landfalling hurricane activity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-23, April.
    5. Hong, Xu & Wan, Zhiqiang & Chen, Jianbing, 2023. "Parallel assessment of the tropical cyclone wind hazard at multiple locations using the probability density evolution method integrated with the change of probability measure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    6. Alam, Md. Shaharier & Kim, Kyusik & Horner, Mark W. & Alisan, Onur & Antwi, Richard & Ozguven, Eren Erman, 2024. "Large-scale modeling of hurricane flooding and disrupted infrastructure impacts on accessibility to critical facilities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Peihua Qin & Zhenghui Xie & Binghao Jia & Rui Han & Buchun Liu, 2023. "Predicting Changes in Population Exposure to Precipitation Extremes over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Regional Climate Model RegCM4 on a Convection-Permitting Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-21, August.
    8. Pavan Harika Raavi & Jung-Eun Chu & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Kevin J. E. Walsh, 2023. "Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Hazem Krichene & Thomas Vogt & Franziska Piontek & Tobias Geiger & Christof Schötz & Christian Otto, 2023. "The social costs of tropical cyclones," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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