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Stock returns, inflation and interest rates in the United Kingdom

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  • Mohammad Hasan

Abstract

The Fisherian theory of interest asserts that a fully perceived change in inflation would be reflected in nominal interest rates and stock returns in the same direction in the long run. This paper examines the Fisherian hypothesis of asset returns using alternative techniques of linear regression, and vector error correction models to examine the nature of the relationship between stock returns and inflation in the UK. Consistent with the Fisherian hypothesis, empirical evidence in the linear regression model suggests a positive and statistically significant relationship between stock returns and inflation, which regards common stock as a good hedge against inflation. The results based on the unit root and cointegration tests indicate a long-run reliable relationship between price levels, share prices, and interest rates which could be interpreted as the long-run determinants of stock returns. The findings also suggest a bidirectional relationship between stock returns and inflation. The evidence of a significant Fisher effect is robust across model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Hasan, 2008. "Stock returns, inflation and interest rates in the United Kingdom," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 687-699.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:14:y:2008:i:8:p:687-699
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470802042211
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    2. Atilla Cifter, 2015. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Developing Countries: A Markov-Switching Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(1), pages 55-76, March.
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    4. Rushdi, Mustabshira & Kim, Jae H. & Silvapulle, Param, 2012. "ARDL bounds tests and robust inference for the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 535-543.
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