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Persistence in Inflation: Does Aggregation Cause Long Memory?

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  • MEHMET BALCILAR

Abstract

This paper examines persistence in Turkish inflation rates using data from consumer and wholesale price indices. The inflationary process in Turkey is believed to be highly inertial, which should lead to strongly persistent inflation series. Persistence of seventy-five inflation series at various aggregation levels is examined by estimating models that allow long memory through fractional differencing. The order of fractional differencing is estimated using several semiparametric and maximum likelihood methods. Persistence of each series is evaluated using the time required for a given percentage of the effect of a shock to dissipate. We find that disaggregate inflation series show no significant persistence. We found that only twelve out of seventy-five series require more than six months for 99 percent of the effect of a shock to dissipate. Thus, the paper finds evidence of spurious long memory due to aggregation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar, 2004. "Persistence in Inflation: Does Aggregation Cause Long Memory?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 25-56, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:40:y:2004:i:5:p:25-56
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kunal Saha & Vinodh Madhavan & Chandrashekhar G. R. & David McMillan, 2020. "Pitfalls in long memory research," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1733280-173, January.
    2. J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2021. "Temperature Anomalies, Long Memory, and Aggregation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, March.
    3. J. Eduardo Vera‐Valdés, 2020. "On long memory origins and forecast horizons," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 811-826, August.
    4. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2010. "Contemporaneous aggregation and long-memory property of returns and volatility in the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4844-4854.
    5. Tianfeng Li & June Wei, 2015. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Haldrup, Niels & Vera Valdés, J. Eduardo, 2017. "Long memory, fractional integration, and cross-sectional aggregation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 1-11.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2016. "Analyzing South Africa’s inflation persistence using an ARFIMA model with Markov-switching fractional differencing parameter," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(1), pages 47-57, January-M.
    8. Guangxi Cao, 2012. "Time-Varying Effects of Changes in the Interest Rate and the RMB Exchange Rate on the Stock Market of China: Evidence from the Long-Memory TVP-VAR Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 230-248, July.
    9. J. Eduardo Vera-Vald'es, 2018. "Nonfractional Memory: Filtering, Antipersistence, and Forecasting," Papers 1801.06677, arXiv.org.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2013. "Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G-7 Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 1-42, February.
    11. Rene Coppe Pimentel & Taufiq Choudhry, 2014. "Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 71-92, January.
    12. Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel & Fisunoglu, Mahir, 2008. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in Jordan, Philippines and Turkey: A long memory approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12.

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