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The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Evidence from selected CEE countries

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  • Hasanov, Mübariz
  • Omay, Tolga

Abstract

In this paper, we examine causal relationships among inflation rate, output growth rate, inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty for ten Central and Eastern European transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate a bivariate GARCH model that includes output growth and inflation rates for each country. Then we use conditional standard deviations of inflation and output to proxy nominal and real uncertainty, respectively, and perform Granger-causality tests. Our results suggest that inflation rate induces uncertainty about both inflation rate and output growth rate, which is detrimental for real economic activity. On the other hand, we find that output growth rate reduces macroeconomic uncertainty in some countries. In addition, we also examine and discuss causal relationships among remaining variables.

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  • Hasanov, Mübariz & Omay, Tolga, 2010. "The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Evidence from selected CEE countries," MPRA Paper 23764, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23764
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    Cited by:

    1. Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2019. "Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Transmissions between Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance: Evidence from South Asian Countries," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(3), pages 281-313, December.
    2. Tolga Omay & Furkan Emirmahmutoğlu, 2017. "The Comparison of Power and Optimization Algorithms on Unit Root Testing with Smooth Transition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 623-651, April.
    3. Nicholas Apergis & Umit Bulut & Gulbahar Ucler & Serife Ozsahin, 2021. "The causal linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty under structural breaks: Evidence from Turkey," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(3), pages 259-275, June.
    4. Pelin Öge Güney, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Investment Relationship for Turkey," Working Papers 1332, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    5. Daniela Viorica & Danut Jemna & Carmen Pintilescu & Mircea Asandului, 2014. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty. Empirical Evidence for the Newest EU Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-11, March.
    6. Samir Ghazouani, 2012. "Threshold Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from MENA Region," Working Papers 715, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    7. Dejan Zivkov & Slavica Manic & Jasmina Duraskovic & Jelena Kovacevic, 2019. "Bidirectional Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Asian Emerging Markets – The GARCH-in-Mean Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(6), pages 580-599, December.
    8. Taderera, Christie & Runganga, Raynold & Mhaka, Simbarashe & Mishi, Syden, 2021. "Inflation, interest rate and economic growth nexuses in SACU countries," MPRA Paper 105419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Davtyan Azat, 2014. "GMM Estimation and Shapiro-Francia Normality Test: A Case Study of CEE Economies," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 12-26.
    10. Shah, Said Zamin & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Hook, Law Siong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2017. "Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-93.
    11. Nasr, Adnen Ben & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ajmi, Ahdi N. & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2015. "Causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 46-68.
    12. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    13. Tolga Omay, 2011. "The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Nonlinear Multivariate GARCH-M evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3006-3015.
    14. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2021. "Asymmetric oil price and Asian economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    15. Ljubivoje Radonjic & Nevena Veselinovic, 2020. "Patterns of Interrelationships between Inflation, R&D, Innovation, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 22(2), pages 5-33, December.
    16. Huthaifa Alqaralleh & Alaa Adden Abuhommous & Ahmad Alsaraireh, 2020. "Modelling and Forecasting the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies: A Comparison of Nonlinear GARCH-Type Models," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(4), pages 346-356, July.
    17. Omay, Tolga & Iren, Perihan, 2019. "Behavior of foreign investors in the Malaysian stock market in times of crisis: A nonlinear approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 85-100.
    18. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    19. Tariq A.H. Al-Zuhd & Mohammad H. Saleh, 2017. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus in Kuwait: A GARCH Modeling Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 198-203.
    20. Lupu, Dan & Asandului, Mircea & Sîrghi, Nicoleta, 2015. "Considerations regarding inflation's evolution in Central and Eastern European countries," MPRA Paper 95508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Perekunah B. Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2022. "Inflation, output growth and their uncertainties: some multivariate GARCH-M evidence for Nigeria," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 197-210, June.
    22. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    23. Rene Coppe Pimentel & Taufiq Choudhry, 2014. "Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 71-92, January.
    24. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Huseyin Ozturk, 2013. "The Drivers of Credit Default Swap Prices: Evidence from Selected Emerging Market Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S5), pages 228-249, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; output growth; uncertainty; Granger-Causality tests; transition countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General

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