IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hac/hacwop/20128.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Relationship between Inflation, output growth, and their Uncertainties: Evidence from selected CEE countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mubariz Hasanov

    (Hacettepe University, Department of Economics)

  • Tolga Omay

    (Cankaya University, Department of International Trade Management)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine causal relationships among inflation rate, output growth rate, inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty for ten Central and Eastern European transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate a bivariate GARCH model that includes output growth and inflation rates for each country. Then we use conditional standard deviations of inflation and output to proxy nominal and real uncertainty, respectively, and perform Granger-causality tests. Our results suggest that inflation rate induces uncertainty about both inflation rate and output growth rate, which is detrimental for real economic activity. On the other hand, we find that output growth rate reduces macroeconomic uncertainty. In addition, we also examine and discuss causal relationships among remaining variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2012. "The Relationship between Inflation, output growth, and their Uncertainties: Evidence from selected CEE countries," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20128, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hac:hacwop:20128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iktisat.hacettepe.edu.tr/WP/WP-2012-8.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Thornton, 2007. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(4), pages 858-870, April.
    2. Devereux, Michael, 1989. "A Positive Theory of Inflation and Inflation Variance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 105-116, January.
    3. Keith Blackburn & Alessandra Pelloni, 2005. "Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 262-282, April.
    4. Gérard Roland, 2004. "Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026268148x, April.
    5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-184, May.
    7. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 2000/030, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    9. Tolga OMAY & Nilay ALUFTEKIN & Ece C. KARADAGLI, 2010. "The Relationship Between Output Growth And Inflation: Evidence From Turkey," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 55-63.
    10. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    11. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Blackburn, Keith & Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2003. "Growth, volatility and learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 417-421, June.
    13. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    14. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    15. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-837, August.
    16. Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
    17. Jonathan Temple, 2000. "Inflation and Growth: Stories Short and Tall," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 395-426, September.
    18. Kalin Hristov & Martin Zaimov, 2003. "Shadowing the euro: Bulgaria’s monetary policy five years on," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional currency areas and the use of foreign currencies, volume 17, pages 61-78, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Logue, Dennis E & Sweeney, Richard James, 1981. "Inflation and Real Growth: Some Empirical Results: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 497-501, November.
    20. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2019. "Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Transmissions between Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance: Evidence from South Asian Countries," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(3), pages 281-313, December.
    2. Tolga Omay & Furkan Emirmahmutoğlu, 2017. "The Comparison of Power and Optimization Algorithms on Unit Root Testing with Smooth Transition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 623-651, April.
    3. Nicholas Apergis & Umit Bulut & Gulbahar Ucler & Serife Ozsahin, 2021. "The causal linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty under structural breaks: Evidence from Turkey," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(3), pages 259-275, June.
    4. Pelin Öge Güney, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Investment Relationship for Turkey," Working Papers 1332, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    5. Omay, Tolga & Iren, Perihan, 2019. "Behavior of foreign investors in the Malaysian stock market in times of crisis: A nonlinear approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 85-100.
    6. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    7. Daniela Viorica & Danut Jemna & Carmen Pintilescu & Mircea Asandului, 2014. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty. Empirical Evidence for the Newest EU Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-11, March.
    8. Samir Ghazouani, 2012. "Threshold Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from MENA Region," Working Papers 715, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    9. Dejan Zivkov & Slavica Manic & Jasmina Duraskovic & Jelena Kovacevic, 2019. "Bidirectional Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Asian Emerging Markets – The GARCH-in-Mean Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(6), pages 580-599, December.
    10. Tariq A.H. Al-Zuhd & Mohammad H. Saleh, 2017. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus in Kuwait: A GARCH Modeling Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 198-203.
    11. Taderera, Christie & Runganga, Raynold & Mhaka, Simbarashe & Mishi, Syden, 2021. "Inflation, interest rate and economic growth nexuses in SACU countries," MPRA Paper 105419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Davtyan Azat, 2014. "GMM Estimation and Shapiro-Francia Normality Test: A Case Study of CEE Economies," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 12-26.
    13. Lupu, Dan & Asandului, Mircea & Sîrghi, Nicoleta, 2015. "Considerations regarding inflation's evolution in Central and Eastern European countries," MPRA Paper 95508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Shah, Said Zamin & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Hook, Law Siong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2017. "Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-93.
    15. Nasr, Adnen Ben & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ajmi, Ahdi N. & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2015. "Causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 46-68.
    16. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    17. Tolga Omay, 2011. "The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Nonlinear Multivariate GARCH-M evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3006-3015.
    18. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2021. "Asymmetric oil price and Asian economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    19. Perekunah B. Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2022. "Inflation, output growth and their uncertainties: some multivariate GARCH-M evidence for Nigeria," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 197-210, June.
    20. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    21. Rene Coppe Pimentel & Taufiq Choudhry, 2014. "Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 71-92, January.
    22. Ljubivoje Radonjic & Nevena Veselinovic, 2020. "Patterns of Interrelationships between Inflation, R&D, Innovation, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 22(2), pages 5-33, December.
    23. Huthaifa Alqaralleh & Alaa Adden Abuhommous & Ahmad Alsaraireh, 2020. "Modelling and Forecasting the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies: A Comparison of Nonlinear GARCH-Type Models," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(4), pages 346-356, July.
    24. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Huseyin Ozturk, 2013. "The Drivers of Credit Default Swap Prices: Evidence from Selected Emerging Market Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S5), pages 228-249, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
    2. Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2019. "Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Transmissions between Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance: Evidence from South Asian Countries," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(3), pages 281-313, December.
    3. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2010. "Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 511-537, December.
    4. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    5. Perekunah B. Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2022. "Inflation, output growth and their uncertainties: some multivariate GARCH-M evidence for Nigeria," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 197-210, June.
    6. Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2013. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in macroeconomics data: UK inflation, output growth and their uncertainties," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 12, pages 266-288, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.
    8. Hartmann, Matthias & Roestel, Jan, 2013. "Inflation, output and uncertainty in the era of inflation targeting – A multi-economy view on causal linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 98-112.
    9. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Kaustav Kanti Sarkar & Srikanta Kundu, 2021. "Nonlinear relationships between inflation, output growth and uncertainty in India: New evidence from a bivariate threshold model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 469-493, July.
    10. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    11. Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
    12. Levent KORAP, 2009. "On the links between inflation, output growth and uncertainty: System-GARCH evidence from the Turkish economy," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(285), pages 89-110.
    13. Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2009. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in Asian Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 215-229, May.
    14. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2005. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Are They Related?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 58-76, September.
    15. Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2013. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty And Output Growth: Recent Evidence From Asean-5 Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(04), pages 1-17.
    16. Wilson, Bradley Kemp, 2006. "The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: New time series evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 609-620, September.
    17. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2017. "Inflation expectation uncertainty, inflation and the output gap," Ruhr Economic Papers 673, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Berument, Hakan & Yalcin, Yeliz & Yildirim, Julide, 2009. "The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1201-1207, November.
    19. Shah, Said Zamin & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Hook, Law Siong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2017. "Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-93.
    20. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Understanding the inflation-output nexus for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 82-90, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Output growth; Uncertainty; Granger-Causality Tests; Transition Countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hac:hacwop:20128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aysen Arac (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dehuntr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.