IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v22y2011i5p343-355.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience

Author

Listed:
  • Akyurek, Cem
  • Kutan, Ali M.
  • Yilmazkuday, Hakan

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of Turkey's inflation targeting (IT) experience. We find the IT regime to be an effective framework. Our judgment is based on three broad conclusions supported by empirical analyses. First, fiscal stability is an effective tool for a successful monetary policy. Second, the overnight policy of the Central Bank of Turkey rate is a significant determinant of the changes in market lending rates, which is the preliminary step in the monetary transmission mechanism. Third, recent developments on the broader issue of the effectiveness of interest rate policy in controlling inflation through aggregate demand management and through other channels are encouraging. Based on our findings, we argue that the impact of policy rate changes on economic activity and inflation have become more predictable and changed in the direction in line with theory, improving the transmission capacity of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Akyurek, Cem & Kutan, Ali M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 343-355, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:22:y:2011:i:5:p:343-355
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104900781100042X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Ishak Demir, 2014. "Keep your Word: Time-varying Inflation Targets and Inflation Targeting Performance," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 160-182, March.
    3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Mouyad Alsamara & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Asymmetric impacts of foreign exchange rate on the demand for money in Turkey: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 335-356, April.
    5. Jamilov, Rustam & Égert, Balázs, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through and monetary policy asymmetry: A journey into the Caucasian black box," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 57-70.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    7. Nidhal Mgadmi & Slim Chaouachi & Wajdi Moussa & Azza Bejaoui, 2021. "Does the Tunisian Central Bank follow an augmented nonlinear Taylor rule?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Rene Coppe Pimentel & Taufiq Choudhry, 2014. "Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 71-92, January.
    9. Josef C. Brada & Jan KubÃ­Ä ek & Ali M. Kutan & Vladimír Tomšík, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 357-376, September.
    10. Ma Jun & Olson Eric & Wohar Mark E., 2018. "Nonlinear Taylor rules: evidence from a large dataset," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Ma Jun & Olson Eric & Wohar Mark E., 2018. "Nonlinear Taylor rules: evidence from a large dataset," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-14, February.
    12. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2013. "Inflation and interest rates in the presence of a cost channel, wealth effect and agent heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 286-296.
    13. Arzu Tay Bayramoglu & Larry Allen, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Transmission in Turkey in the Inflation Targeting Regime," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 6, pages 1-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    3. Jamilov, Rustam & Égert, Balázs, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through and monetary policy asymmetry: A journey into the Caucasian black box," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 57-70.
    4. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    5. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2013. "Inflation and interest rates in the presence of a cost channel, wealth effect and agent heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 286-296.
    7. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Phillips Curve for the Asian Economies: A Nonlinear Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3508-3537, September.
    8. Josef C. Brada & Jan KubÃ­Ä ek & Ali M. Kutan & Vladimír Tomšík, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 357-376, September.
    9. K. Azim Ozdemir, 2015. "Interest Rate Surprises and Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: Evidence from Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 1504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    10. Nidhal Mgadmi & Slim Chaouachi & Wajdi Moussa & Azza Bejaoui, 2021. "Does the Tunisian Central Bank follow an augmented nonlinear Taylor rule?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, January.
    11. Sheikh Khurram Fazal & Muhammad Abdus Salam, 2013. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 39-62, Jan-June.
    12. Simranjeet Kaur, 2023. "A Decade of Impact of Monetary Policy on Food Inflation: An Overview and Future Direction," Vision, , vol. 27(4), pages 498-509, August.
    13. Kutan, Ali & Ozsoz, Emre & Rengifo, Erick, 2012. "Dynamics of Foreign Currency Lending in Turkey," MPRA Paper 36214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Ishak Demir, 2014. "Keep your Word: Time-varying Inflation Targets and Inflation Targeting Performance," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 160-182, March.
    15. Mercan Hatipoglu, 2023. "What Determined Stock Returns in Turkey from 1990 to 2022: Evidence from Structural Break Regression," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 185-202, June.
    16. Ali Mna & Hadda Kilani, 2023. "A monetary policy reaction function through Taylor rule vision: evidence from Tunisia," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(8), pages 1-18, August.
    17. Cemal Ozturk & Gunsenin Altinkaynak, 2022. "Asymmetric Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Evidence from Turkey," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, June.
    18. Cuneyt Dumrul & Yasemin Dumrul, 2015. "Price-Money Relationship after Infl ation Targeting: Co-integration Test with Structural Breaks for Turkey and Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 701-708.
    19. Rene Coppe Pimentel & Taufiq Choudhry, 2014. "Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 71-92, January.
    20. Mouyad Alsamara & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Asymmetric impacts of foreign exchange rate on the demand for money in Turkey: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 335-356, April.
    21. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2008. "Structural Breaks in Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from Transition Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 87-97, November.
    22. Apanisile, Tolulope Olumuyiwa & Akinlo, Anthony Enisan, 2022. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in an Implicit Inflation Targeting Regime: The Case of Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(4), September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Kashif Islam & Ahmad Raza Bilal & Syed Anees Haider Zaidi, 2022. "Symmetric and asymmetric nexus between economic freedom and stock market development in Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2391-2421, November.
    3. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2014. "Macroprudential regulation and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 44-63.
    4. Joseph Agyapong, 2021. "Application of Taylor Rule Fundamentals in Forecasting Exchange Rates," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-27, June.
    5. Teti̇k, Metin, 2020. "Testing of leader-follower interaction between fed and emerging countries’ central banks," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    6. Thang, Doan Ngoc & Anh, Pham Thi Hoang & Long, Trinh & Dong, Do Phy & Dat, Luong Van, 2022. "Monetary Stance and Favorableness of Monetary Policy in the Media: The Case of Viet Nam," ADBI Working Papers 1325, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Paiva, Claudio A.C., 2017. "Deconstructing credibility: The breaking of monetary policy rules in Brazil," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 31-52.
    8. Nikola Fabris & Milena Lazić, 2022. "Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 77-96.
    9. Adel Boughrara and Ichrak Dridi, 2017. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Foreign Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 67-86, June.
    10. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner & Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek & Mirko Djukic & Tibor Hledik & Jiri Polansky & Ljubica Trajcev & Jan Vlcek & Ruslan Aliyev & Dana Hajkova & Ivana Kubicova, 2017. "Effects of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 15, number rb15/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Jan Bruha, January.
    11. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2017. "Cyclically adjusted provisions and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 143-162.
    12. Horacio A. Aguirre & Emilio F. Blanco, 2015. "Credit and Macroprudential Policy in an Emerging Economy: a Structural Model Assessment," BIS Working Papers 504, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Gil, Pedro Mazeda & Iglésias, Gustavo & Guimarães, Luís, 2023. "Endogenous growth and monetary policy: How do interest-rate feedback rules shape nominal and real transitional dynamics?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Hurn Stan & Johnson Nicholas & Silvennoinen Annastiina & Teräsvirta Timo, 2022. "Transition from the Taylor rule to the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(5), pages 635-647, December.
    15. Abdul‐Aziz Iddrisu & Imhotep Paul Alagidede, 2020. "Is the interest rate setting behaviour of the Bank of Ghana constrained by high debt levels?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 459-471, September.
    16. Ümit BULUT, 2019. "The Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier-Based Time Series Methods," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 159-173, December.
    17. Nikhil Patel & Agustín Villar, 2016. "Measuring inflation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 9-21, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Emmanuel Carré & Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran & Salim Dehmej, 2015. "La coordination entre politique monétaire et politique macroprudentielle. Que disent les modèles dsge ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 66(3), pages 541-572.
    19. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Foreign Exchange Futures Market for Inflation Targeting Economies," MPRA Paper 104810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Iddrisu, Abdul-Aziz & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:22:y:2011:i:5:p:343-355. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.