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Good decision vs. good results: Outcome bias in the evaluation of financial agents

Author

Listed:
  • Christian König-Kersting

    (University of Innsbruck)

  • Monique Pollmann

    (Tilburg University)

  • Jan Potters

    (Tilburg University)

  • Stefan T. Trautmann

    (University of Heidelberg)

Abstract

We document outcome bias in situations where an agent makes risky financial decisions for a principal. In three experiments, we show that the principal’s evaluations and financial rewards for the agent are strongly affected by the random outcome of the risky investment. This happens despite her exact knowledge of the investment strategy, which can, therefore, be assessed independently of the outcome. The principal thus judges the same decision by the agent differently, depending on factors that the agent has no influence on. The effect of outcomes persists in a setting where principals communicate a preferred investment level. Principals are more satisfied with the agent after a random success when the agent did not follow the requested investment level, than after a failed investment that followed their explicit request.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian König-Kersting & Monique Pollmann & Jan Potters & Stefan T. Trautmann, 2021. "Good decision vs. good results: Outcome bias in the evaluation of financial agents," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 31-61, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:90:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11238-020-09773-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-020-09773-1
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    Cited by:

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    2. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
    3. Kling, Luisa & König-Kersting, Christian & Trautmann, Stefan T., 2023. "Investment preferences and risk perception: Financial agents versus clients," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets," Working Papers 390, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    5. Raphael Flepp & Pascal Flurin Meier, 2024. "Struck by Luck: Noisy Capability Cues and CEO Dismissal," Working Papers 389, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    6. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Philippe & Franck, Egon, 2022. "Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 292-309.
    7. Alexia GAUDEUL & Caterina GIANNETTI, 2023. "Trade-offs in the design of financial algorithms," Discussion Papers 2023/288, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Nina Weber, 2023. "Prosocial Risk-Taking: Growing the Pie or Increasing your Slice?," ifo Working Paper Series 399, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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