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Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams

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  • Meier, Pascal Flurin
  • Flepp, Raphael
  • Meier, Philippe
  • Franck, Egon

Abstract

Exploiting a quasi-experimental field setting, we examine whether people are outcome biased when self-evaluating their past decisions. Using data from Swiss driving license exams, we find that candidates who narrowly passed the theoretical driving exam are significantly less likely to pass the subsequent practical driving exam – which is taken several months after the theoretical exam – than those who narrowly failed. Those candidates who passed the theoretical exam on their first attempt receive more objections regarding their momentary, on-the-spot decisions in the practical exam, consistent with the idea that the underlying behavioral difference is worse preparation.

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  • Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Philippe & Franck, Egon, 2022. "Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 292-309.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:201:y:2022:i:c:p:292-309
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.07.013
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    2. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2022. "Are Expectations Misled by Chance? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Financial Analysts," Working Papers 396, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Outcome bias; Self-evaluation; Behavioral economics; Judgment; Regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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