IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v43y2024i4d10.1007_s11113-024-09905-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Conflict and Girl Child Marriage: Global Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Caroline Krafft

    (St. Catherine University)

  • Diana Jimena Arango

    (World Bank Group)

  • Amalia Hadas Rubin

    (International Republican Institute)

  • Jocelyn Kelly

    (Harvard Humanitarian Initiative)

Abstract

Child marriage has lasting negative health, human capital, and welfare consequences. Conflict settings are characterized by a number of complex changes that can potentially increase the risk of child marriage, but there has been limited population-based research directly estimating the relationship between conflict and child marriage. Using data from 19 conflict-affected countries, this paper estimates the relationship between conflict and child marriage. It identifies the relationship based on variation over space and time in conflict intensity. The findings are mixed; in some countries conflict is associated with an increase in child marriage, in others it is associated with a decrease in child marriage, and in some cases there is not a statistically significant relationship. These findings underscore how efforts to reduce child marriage need to consider conflict as a potential risk factor, but also one that is likely to interact with local economic, social, and demographic environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Caroline Krafft & Diana Jimena Arango & Amalia Hadas Rubin & Jocelyn Kelly, 2024. "Conflict and Girl Child Marriage: Global Evidence," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-26, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:43:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09905-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09905-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-024-09905-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-024-09905-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    2. Alissa Koski & Shelley Clark & Arijit Nandi, 2017. "Has Child Marriage Declined in sub-Saharan Africa? An Analysis of Trends in 31 Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43(1), pages 7-29, March.
    3. Ekhator-Mobayode,Uche Eseosa & Kelly,Jocelyn Thalassa Deverall & Rubin,Amalia Hadas & Arango,Diana Jimena, 2021. "Intimate Partner Violence and Household Decision Making Autonomy : Effects of the Malian Conflict on Women," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9821, The World Bank.
    4. Nina Buchmann & Erica Field & Rachel Glennerster & Shahana Nazneen & Xiao Yu Wang, 2023. "A Signal to End Child Marriage: Theory and Experimental Evidence from Bangladesh," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(10), pages 2645-2688, October.
    5. Singh, Risha & Goli, Srinivas & Singh, Abhra, 2022. "Armed conflicts and girl child marriages: A global evidence," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Mayra Buvinić & Monica Das Gupta & Olga N. Shemyakina, 2014. "Armed Conflict, Gender, and Schooling," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 311-319.
    7. Jacob Moscona & Nathan Nunn & James A. Robinson, 2018. "Social Structure and Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," HiCN Working Papers 264, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Sara Randall, 2005. "The Demographic Consequences of Conflict, Exile and Repatriation: A Case Study of Malian Tuareg," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 291-320, June.
    9. Foster, Andrew & Gökçe, Merve Betül & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2023. "Intergenerational Power Shift and the Rise of Non-arranged Marriages among Refugees," IZA Discussion Papers 16348, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Lu, Frances & Siddiqui, Sameem & Bharadwaj, Prashant, 2021. "Marriage outcomes of displaced women," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Admasu,Yeshwas & Alkire,Sabina & Ekhator-Mobayode,Uche Eseosa & Kovesdi,Fanni & Santamaria,Julieth & Scharlin-Pettee[,Sophie, 2021. "A Multi-Country Analysis of Multidimensional Poverty in Contexts of Forced Displacement," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9826, The World Bank.
    12. Valente, Christine, 2011. "What did the Maoists ever do for us ? education and marriage of women exposed to civil conflict in Nepal," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5741, The World Bank.
    13. Orsola Torrisi, 2022. "Wedding Amidst War? Armed Conflict and Female Teen Marriage in Azerbaijan," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 1243-1275, December.
    14. Pivovarova, Margarita & Swee, Eik Leong, 2015. "Quantifying the Microeconomic Effects of War Using Panel Data: Evidence From Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 308-321.
    15. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Explaining Rare Events in International Relations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 693-715, July.
    16. Liu, Jenny & Modrek, Sepideh & Sieverding, Maia, 2019. "The effects of political protests on youth human capital and well-being in Egypt," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    17. Hieu T. M. Nguyen & Blane D. Lewis, 2020. "Teenage Marriage and Motherhood in Vietnam: The Negative Effects of Starting School Early," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(4), pages 739-762, August.
    18. Kelly,Jocelyn TD & Holmes,Morgan Oleary & Gibbons,Niamh & Matabaro,Amani & Voors,Maarten Jan, 2021. "Conflict, Displacement and Overlapping Vulnerabilities : Understanding Risk Factors forGender-Based Violence among Displaced Women in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9819, The World Bank.
    19. Moussa, Wael & Salti, Nisreen & Irani, Alexandra & Mokdad, Rima Al & Jamaluddine, Zeina & Chaaban, Jad & Ghattas, Hala, 2022. "The impact of cash transfers on Syrian refugee children in Lebanon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    20. Patrick Heuveline & Bunnak Poch, 2007. "The phoenix population: Demographic crisis and rebound in Cambodia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 405-426, May.
    21. Zeinab Cherri & Julita Gil Cuesta & Jose M. Rodriguez-Llanes & Debarati Guha-Sapir, 2017. "Early Marriage and Barriers to Contraception among Syrian Refugee Women in Lebanon: A Qualitative Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, July.
    22. Sophia Chae, 2016. "Forgotten marriages? Measuring the reliability of marriage histories," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(19), pages 525-562.
    23. Singh, Prakarsh & Shemyakina, Olga N., 2016. "Gender-differential effects of terrorism on education: The case of the 1981–1993 Punjab insurgency," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 185-210.
    24. Efevbera, Yvette & Bhabha, Jacqueline & Farmer, Paul E. & Fink, Günther, 2017. "Girl child marriage as a risk factor for early childhood development and stunting," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 91-101.
    25. Christine Valente, 2014. "Education and Civil Conflict in Nepal," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 354-383.
    26. Saad, Ayhab F. & Fallah, Belal, 2020. "How educational choices respond to large labor market shocks: Evidence from a natural experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    27. Quentin Wodon & Minh Cong Nguyen & Clarence Tsimpo, 2016. "Child Marriage, Education, and Agency in Uganda," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 54-79, January.
    28. Anuja Jayaraman & Tesfayi Gebreselassie & S. Chandrasekhar, 2009. "Effect of Conflict on Age at Marriage and Age at First Birth in Rwanda," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 28(5), pages 551-567, October.
    29. Paul, Pintu, 2019. "Effects of education and poverty on the prevalence of girl child marriage in India: A district–level analysis," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 16-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Orsola Torrisi, 2022. "Wedding Amidst War? Armed Conflict and Female Teen Marriage in Azerbaijan," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 1243-1275, December.
    2. Bertoni, Eleonora & Di Maio, Michele & Molini, Vasco & Nisticò, Roberto, 2019. "Education is forbidden: The effect of the Boko Haram conflict on education in North-East Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Mayra Buvinic & Monica Das Gupta & Ursula Casabonne & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Violent Conflict and Gender Inequality: An Overview," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 110-138, February.
    4. Caroline Krafft & Ragui Assaad & Isabel Pastoor, 2024. "How Do Gender Norms Shape Education and Domestic Work Outcomes? The Case of Syrian Refugee Adolescents in Jordan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(12), pages 1964-1993, December.
    5. François Libois, 2016. "Households in Times of War : Adaptation Strategies during the Nepal Civil War," Working Papers 1603, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    6. Yamada, Hiroyuki & Matsushima, Midori, 2020. "Impacts of long-lasting civil conflicts on education: Evidence from the 2014 Census of Myanmar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Weldeegzie, Samuel, 2023. "The persistent effect of conflict on educational outcomes: Evidence from Ethiopia," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Yara Jarallah, 2022. "The ties that bind? Marriage formation, consanguinity and war in Lebanon and Palestine," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 97-132, March.
    9. Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Osili, 2023. "First- and Second-Generation Impacts of the Biafran War," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(2), pages 488-531.
    10. Subedi, Mukti Nath & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Ulker, Aydogan, 2022. "Effects of Affirmative Action on Educational and Labour Market Outcomes: Evidence from Nepal's Reservation Policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 443-463.
    11. Nathalie Williams & Dirgha Ghimire & William Axinn & Elyse Jennings & Meeta Pradhan, 2012. "A Micro-Level Event-Centered Approach to Investigating Armed Conflict and Population Responses," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1521-1546, November.
    12. Phadera, Lokendra, 2021. "Unfortunate Moms and Unfortunate Children: Impact of the Nepali Civil War on Women's Stature and Intergenerational Health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Nepal, Apsara Karki & Halla, Martin & Stillman, Steven, 2018. "Violent Conflict and the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff," IZA Discussion Papers 11690, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Swee, Eik Leong & Zhan, Haikun & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "Do perceptions of economic well-being predict the onset of war and peace?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    15. Ewa Batyra & Hans‐Peter Kohler & Frank F. Furstenberg, 2021. "Changing Gender Gaps in the Timing of First Union Formation and Sexual Initiation in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 289-322, June.
    16. Silwal, Shikha, 2016. "Resilience amidst conflict? The effect of civil war exposure on secondary education," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 97-120.
    17. Schindler, Kati & Bruck, Tilman, 2011. "The effects of conflict on fertility in Rwanda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5715, The World Bank.
    18. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Najjarnejad, Negin & Bromfield, Nicole, 2022. "Professional stakeholders’ perceptions of child marriage in Lebanon among Syrian refugees," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    20. Tillman Hönig, 2019. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 293, Households in Conflict Network.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Child marriage; Humanitarian settings; Gender-based violence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:43:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09905-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.