The effects of political protests on youth human capital and well-being in Egypt

Protests are one of the most common expressions of modern political conflict, and the wave of demonstrations that marked the onset of the Arab Spring contributed to a global increase in protest activity. Yet few studies have examined the effects of exposure to protests on population well-being even though such exposure may have profound and lasting effects, especially if experienced at critical stages of development over the life course. The aim of our study is to estimate the effects of exposure to political protests on the human capital accumulation and well-being of youth during the tumultuous political transition experienced in Egypt from 2011 to 2014. For a nationally representative panel of youth captured in the 2009 and 2013/2014 waves of the Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE), we exploit exogenous geospatial variation in the occurrence of political protests from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project to estimate individual-level changes in social trust, uncertainty, education, and health outcomes for youth exposed to protests. In our panel, 31.1% of the sample lived in districts where riots or protests occurred. Exposure to protests increased overall perceptions of uncertainty about the future. Young men ever exposed to protests were slightly more likely to report good overall health, but experienced sizable worsening in mental health compared to young women ever exposed. Differences by own and family participation in protest events were found for perceptions of uncertainty and mental health. In the aftermath of the Arab Spring and other mass protest movements around the globe, these findings highlight the importance of examining the population-level impacts of different forms of political conflict, particularly as substantial numbers of youth in Middle East and North Africa and elsewhere progress to adulthood under conditions of political instability.