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The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty

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  • Leontine Alkema
  • Patrick Gerland
  • Adrian Raftery
  • John Wilmoth

Abstract

The United Nations publishes projections of populations around the world and breaks these down by age and sex. Traditionally, they are produced with standard demographic methods based on assumptions about future fertility rates, survival probabilities, and migration counts. Such projections, however, were not accompanied by formal statements of uncertainty expressed in probabilistic terms. In July 2014 the UN for the first time issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100. These projections quantify uncertainty associated with future fertility and mortality trends worldwide. This review article summarizes the probabilistic population projection methods and presents forecasts for population growth over the rest of this century. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Leontine Alkema & Patrick Gerland & Adrian Raftery & John Wilmoth, 2015. "The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 37, pages 19-24, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:19-24
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuri S. Popkov & Alexey Yu. Popkov & Yuri A. Dubnov & Dimitri Solomatine, 2020. "Entropy-Randomized Forecasting of Stochastic Dynamic Regression Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Barry W. Brook & Jessie C. Buettel & Sanghyun Hong, 2021. "Constrained scenarios for twenty-first century human population size based on the empirical coupling to economic growth," Papers 2109.14209, arXiv.org.
    3. Niall Newsham & Francisco Rowe, 2021. "Projecting the demographic impact of Syrian migration in a rapidly ageing society, Germany," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 231-261, April.
    4. Agnieszka Fihel & Anna Janicka & Marek Okólski, 2023. "Predicting a Migration Transition in Poland and its Implications for Population Ageing," Post-Print hal-04488199, HAL.
    5. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2019. "Interpreting the skill score form of forecast performance metrics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 573-579.
    6. Angelica BĂCESCU-CĂRBUNARU, 2018. "Global Demographic Pressures and Management of Natural Resources – Foresights about the Future of Mankind," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(1), pages 40-53, March.

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