IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/for/ijafaa/y2015i37p19-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Leontine Alkema
  • Patrick Gerland
  • Adrian Raftery
  • John Wilmoth

Abstract

The United Nations publishes projections of populations around the world and breaks these down by age and sex. Traditionally, they are produced with standard demographic methods based on assumptions about future fertility rates, survival probabilities, and migration counts. Such projections, however, were not accompanied by formal statements of uncertainty expressed in probabilistic terms. In July 2014 the UN for the first time issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100. These projections quantify uncertainty associated with future fertility and mortality trends worldwide. This review article summarizes the probabilistic population projection methods and presents forecasts for population growth over the rest of this century. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Leontine Alkema & Patrick Gerland & Adrian Raftery & John Wilmoth, 2015. "The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 37, pages 19-24, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:19-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuri S. Popkov & Alexey Yu. Popkov & Yuri A. Dubnov & Dimitri Solomatine, 2020. "Entropy-Randomized Forecasting of Stochastic Dynamic Regression Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2019. "Interpreting the skill score form of forecast performance metrics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 573-579.
    3. Angelica BĂCESCU-CĂRBUNARU, 2018. "Global Demographic Pressures and Management of Natural Resources – Foresights about the Future of Mankind," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(1), pages 40-53, March.
    4. Barry W. Brook & Jessie C. Buettel & Sanghyun Hong, 2021. "Constrained scenarios for twenty-first century human population size based on the empirical coupling to economic growth," Papers 2109.14209, arXiv.org.
    5. Niall Newsham & Francisco Rowe, 2021. "Projecting the demographic impact of Syrian migration in a rapidly ageing society, Germany," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 231-261, April.
    6. Agnieszka Fihel & Anna Janicka & Marek Okólski, 2023. "Predicting a Migration Transition in Poland and its Implications for Population Ageing," Post-Print hal-04488199, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2015:i:37:p:19-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael Gilliland (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.