Transport link scanner: simulating geographic transport network expansion through individual investments

This paper introduces a GIS-based model that simulates the geographic expansion of transport networks by several decision-makers with varying objectives. The model progressively adds extensions to a growing network by choosing the most attractive investments from a limited choice set. Attractiveness is defined as a function of variables in which revenue and broader societal benefits may play a role and can be based on empirically underpinned parameters that may differ according to private or public interests. The choice set is selected from an exhaustive set of links and presumably contains those investment options that best meet private operator’s objectives by balancing the revenues of additional fare against construction costs. The investment options consist of geographically plausible routes with potential detours. These routes are generated using a fine-meshed regularly latticed network and shortest path finding methods. Additionally, two indicators of the geographic accuracy of the simulated networks are introduced. A historical case study is presented to demonstrate the model’s first results. These results show that the modelled networks reproduce relevant results of the historically built network with reasonable accuracy.