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Induced Supply: A Model of Highway Network Expansion at the Microscopic Level

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  • David Levinson

    (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

  • Ramachandra Karamalaputi

Abstract

This paper examines the growth of a network based on the present conditions of the network, traffic demand, other demographic characteristics, project costs, and a budget constraint. The effects of expanding a link on its upstream and downstream neighbors, as well as on parallel links are also considered. Data spans two decades and consists of data on physical attributes of the network, their expansion history and AADT values on each of the links. A non-linear cost model is developed for the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Results show that high capacity links are more likely to be expanded and a higher budget result in more links being expanded. Large population in the surrounding region deters two-lane expansion because of the high cost associated with such an expansion but a one-lane expansion is favored. One of the important results of this research is that the rate of network expansion has decreased over the years.

Suggested Citation

  • David Levinson & Ramachandra Karamalaputi, 2003. "Induced Supply: A Model of Highway Network Expansion at the Microscopic Level," Working Papers 200304, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:inducedsupply
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11299/179908
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lei Zhang & David Levinson, 2006. "Economics of Road Network Ownership," Working Papers 200908, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    2. Rayaprolu, Hema & Levinson, David, 2024. "Co-evolution of public transport access and ridership," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. David Levinson & Ramachandra Karamalaputi, 2003. "Predicting the Construction of New Highway Links," Working Papers 200305, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    4. Lei Zhang & David Levinson, 2005. "Road Pricing with Autonomous Links," Working Papers 200506, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    5. Abe, Ryosuke & Kato, Hironori, 2017. "What led to the establishment of a rail-oriented city? Determinants of urban rail supply in Tokyo, Japan, 1950–2010," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 72-79.
    6. David Levinson, 2008. "Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 55-77, January.
    7. Lei Zhang & David Levinson, 2007. "The Economics of Transportation Network Growth," Contributions to Economics, in: Pablo Coto-Millán & Vicente Inglada (ed.), Essays on Transport Economics, chapter 17, pages 317-339, Springer.
    8. Nikolas Geroliminis & David M. Levinson, 2009. "Cordon Pricing Consistent with the Physics of Overcrowding," Springer Books, in: William H. K. Lam & S. C. Wong & Hong K. Lo (ed.), Transportation and Traffic Theory 2009: Golden Jubilee, chapter 0, pages 219-240, Springer.
    9. Martin, Juan Carlos & García-Palomares, Juan Carlos & Gutierrez, Javier & Román, Concepción, 2010. "Efficiency and equity of orbital motorways in Madrid," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(1), pages 67-84.
    10. Ge Shi & Jie Shan & Liang Ding & Peng Ye & Yang Li & Nan Jiang, 2019. "Urban Road Network Expansion and Its Driving Variables: A Case Study of Nanjing City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-16, June.
    11. David Levinson & Wei Chen, 2007. "Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth," Working Papers 200708, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    12. Alireza Ermagun & David M Levinson, 2019. "Development and application of the network weight matrix to predict traffic flow for congested and uncongested conditions," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 46(9), pages 1684-1705, November.
    13. Hongyan Chen & Ruwen Qin, 2012. "Real options as an incentive scheme for managing revenues in transportation infrastructure projects," International Journal of Revenue Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1/2), pages 77-101.
    14. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2009. "Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 459-483, September.
    15. David Levinson & Wei Chen, 2004. "Paving New Ground," Working Papers 200509, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    16. C. Jacobs-Crisioni & C. C. Koopmans, 2016. "Transport link scanner: simulating geographic transport network expansion through individual investments," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 265-301, July.
    17. Lei Zhang & David Levinson & Shanjiang Zhu, 2007. "Agent-Based Model of Price Competition and Product Differentiation on Congested Networks," Working Papers 200809, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Network expansion; Cost Model; Transportation forecasting; adjacent links in a network.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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