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Scars of pandemics from lost schooling and experience: aggregate implications and gender differences through the lens of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Romer

    (Boston College)

  • Roberto Samaniego

    (George Washington University)

  • Remi Jedwab

    (George Washington University)

  • Asif M. Islam

    (The World Bank)

Abstract

Pandemic shocks disrupt human capital accumulation through schooling and work experience. This study quantifies the range of the long-term economic impact of these disruptions in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on countries at different levels of development and using returns to education and experience by college status that are globally estimated using 1084 household surveys across 145 countries. We find that: (1) Both lost schooling and experience can contribute to significant losses in global learning and output; and (2) Developed countries incur greater losses than developing countries, because they have more schooling to start with and higher returns to experience. In addition, the returns to education and experience are separately estimated for men and women, to explore the differential effects by gender of the COVID-19 pandemic. While we uncover gender differences in returns to education and experience, gender differences in the impact of COVID-19 through human capital accumulation are small. The methodology employed in this study is easily implementable for future pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Romer & Roberto Samaniego & Remi Jedwab & Asif M. Islam, 2025. "Scars of pandemics from lost schooling and experience: aggregate implications and gender differences through the lens of COVID-19," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-47, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:30:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10887-024-09246-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10887-024-09246-y
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics; Human capital; Returns to education; Returns to experience; Gender; Female relative income; Labor markets; Development accounting; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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