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Customer-Base Valuation in a Contractual Setting: The Perils of Ignoring Heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Peter S. Fader

    (Department of Marketing, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Bruce G. S. Hardie

    (London Business School, Regent's Park, London NW1 4SA, United Kingdom)

Abstract

The past few years have seen increasing interest in taking the notion of customer lifetime value (CLV) and extending it to value a customer base (with subsequent links to corporate valuation). The application of standard textbook discussions of CLV leads to calculations based on a single retention rate. However, at the cohort level, retention rates typically increase over time. It has been suggested that these observed dynamics are due, in large part, to a sorting effect in a heterogeneous population. We show that failing to recognize these dynamics yields a downward-biased estimate of the residual value of the customer base (compared to an aggregate analysis that ignores these dynamics). We also explore the implications of failing to account for retention dynamics when computing retention elasticities and find that the frequently reported values underestimate the true effect of increases in underlying retention rates in a heterogeneous world.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2010. "Customer-Base Valuation in a Contractual Setting: The Perils of Ignoring Heterogeneity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 85-93, 01-02.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:29:y:2010:i:1:p:85-93
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1080.0482
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2009. "Probability Models for Customer-Base Analysis," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 61-69.
    2. David C. Schmittlein & Donald G. Morrison & Richard Colombo, 1987. "Counting Your Customers: Who-Are They and What Will They Do Next?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Hans H.Bauer & Maik Hammerschmidt & Matthias Braehler, 2004. "The Customer Lifetime Value Concept And Its Contribution To Corporate Valuation," Microeconomics 0402006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2011. "Comment on “On Estimating Current-customer Equity Using Company Summary Data”," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 18-19.
    2. Ascarza, & Neslin, & Netzer, & Lemmens, Aurélie & Anderson, Zachery & Fader, Peter S. & Gupta, S. & Hardie, B.G.S. & Libai, Barak & Neal, David & Provost, Foster, 2018. "In pursuit of enhanced customer retention management : Review, key issues, and future directions," Other publications TiSEM 28a90d28-6daf-42f1-bd8e-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Mark, Tanya & Lemon, Katherine N. & Vandenbosch, Mark & Bulla, Jan & Maruotti, Antonello, 2013. "Capturing the Evolution of Customer–Firm Relationships: How Customers Become More (or Less) Valuable Over Time," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 231-245.
    4. Juha Karvanen & Ari Rantanen & Lasse Luoma, 2013. "Survey data and Bayesian analysis: a cost-efficient way to estimate customer equity," Papers 1304.5380, arXiv.org, revised May 2014.
    5. Chandrasekhar Valluri & Sudhakar Raju & Vivek H. Patil, 2022. "Customer determinants of used auto loan churn: comparing predictive performance using machine learning techniques," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(3), pages 279-296, September.
    6. Guofang Huang & K. Sudhir, 2021. "The Causal Effect of Service Satisfaction on Customer Loyalty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 317-341, January.
    7. Chang, Chun-Wei & Zhang, Jonathan Z., 2016. "The Effects of Channel Experiences and Direct Marketing on Customer Retention in Multichannel Settings," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-90.
    8. Shi, Ruixia & Chen, Hongyu & Sethi, Suresh P., 2019. "A generalized count model on customers' purchases in O2O market," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 121-130.
    9. Guofang Huang & K. Sudhir, 2019. "The Causal Effect of Service Satisfaction on Customer Loyalty," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2177, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S. & Liu, Yuzhou & Davin, Joseph & Steenburgh, Thomas, 2018. "“How to Project Customer Retention” Revisited: The Role of Duration Dependence," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-16.
    11. Aurélie Lemmens & Sunil Gupta, 2020. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(5), pages 956-973, September.
    12. Haenlein, Michael & Libai, Barak & Muller, Eitan, 2023. "Satiation and cross promotion: Selling and swapping users in mobile games," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 342-361.
    13. Patrice Cailleba & Herbert Casteran, 2010. "Do Ethical Values Work? A Quantitative Study of the Impact of Fair Trade Coffee on Consumer Behavior," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 97(4), pages 613-624, December.
    14. Eva Ascarza & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2013. "A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 570-590, July.
    15. David A. Schweidel & Eric T. Bradlow & Peter S. Fader, 2011. "Portfolio Dynamics for Customers of a Multiservice Provider," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 471-486, March.
    16. Patrick Winter & Paul Alpar, 2018. "On the relationship between print and mobile channels for newspapers," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 28(1), pages 79-92, February.
    17. Juha Karvanen & Ari Rantanen & Lasse Luoma, 2014. "Survey data and Bayesian analysis: a cost-efficient way to estimate customer equity," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 305-329, September.
    18. Michael Braun & David A. Schweidel, 2011. "Modeling Customer Lifetimes with Multiple Causes of Churn," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 881-902, September.
    19. Antonello Maruotti & Jan Bulla & Tanya Mark, 2019. "Assessing the influence of marketing activities on customer behaviors: a dynamic clustering approach," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 77(1), pages 19-42, April.
    20. Eva Ascarza & Scott A. Neslin & Oded Netzer & Zachery Anderson & Peter S. Fader & Sunil Gupta & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Aurélie Lemmens & Barak Libai & David Neal & Foster Provost & Rom Schrift, 2018. "In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 5(1), pages 65-81, March.
    21. Lily (Xuehui) Gao & Evert Haan & Iguácel Melero-Polo & F. Javier Sese, 2023. "Winning your customers’ minds and hearts: Disentangling the effects of lock-in and affective customer experience on retention," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 334-371, March.
    22. Hans Jørn Juhl & Morten H. J. Fenger & John Thøgersen, 2017. "Will the Consistent Organic Food Consumer Step Forward? An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 519-535.
    23. Vahideh Sadat Abedi & Oded Berman & Fred M. Feinberg & Dmitry Krass, 2022. "Strategic new product media planning under emergent channel substitution and synergy," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(5), pages 2143-2166, May.

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