IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/qmktec/v12y2014i3p305-329.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Survey data and Bayesian analysis: a cost-efficient way to estimate customer equity

Author

Listed:
  • Juha Karvanen
  • Ari Rantanen
  • Lasse Luoma

Abstract

We present a Bayesian framework for estimating the customer lifetime value (CLV) and the customer equity (CE) based on the purchasing behavior deducible from the market surveys on customer purchasing behavior. The proposed framework systematically addresses the challenges faced when the future value of customers is estimated based on survey data. The scarcity of the survey data and the sampling variance are countered by utilizing the prior information and quantifying the uncertainty of the CE and CLV estimates by posterior distributions. Furthermore, information on the purchase behavior of the customers of competitors available in the survey data is integrated to the framework. The introduced approach is directly applicable in the domains where a customer relationship can be thought to be monogamous. As an example on the use of the framework, we analyze a consumer survey on mobile phones carried out in Finland in February 2013. The survey data contains consumer given information on the current and previous brand of the phone and the times of the last two purchases. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Juha Karvanen & Ari Rantanen & Lasse Luoma, 2014. "Survey data and Bayesian analysis: a cost-efficient way to estimate customer equity," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 305-329, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:qmktec:v:12:y:2014:i:3:p:305-329
    DOI: 10.1007/s11129-014-9148-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11129-014-9148-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11129-014-9148-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. Kumar & Rajkumar Venkatesan & Tim Bohling & Denise Beckmann, 2008. "—The Power of CLV: Managing Customer Lifetime Value at IBM," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 585-599, 07-08.
    2. David C. Schmittlein & Albert C. Bemmaor & Donald G. Morrison, 1985. "Technical Note—Why Does the NBD Model Work? Robustness in Representing Product Purchases, Brand Purchases and Imperfectly Recorded Purchases," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 255-266.
    3. Sturtz, Sibylle & Ligges, Uwe & Gelman, Andrew, 2005. "R2WinBUGS: A Package for Running WinBUGS from R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 12(i03).
    4. Pfeifer, Phillip E., 2011. "On Estimating Current-Customer Equity Using Company Summary Data," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-14.
    5. Makoto Abe, 2009. "“Counting Your Customers” One by One: A Hierarchical Bayes Extension to the Pareto/NBD Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 541-553, 05-06.
    6. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2010. "Customer-Base Valuation in a Contractual Setting: The Perils of Ignoring Heterogeneity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 85-93, 01-02.
    7. Siddharth Singh & Sharad Borle & Dipak Jain, 2009. "A generalized framework for estimating customer lifetime value when customer lifetimes are not observed," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 181-205, June.
    8. David C. Schmittlein & Donald G. Morrison & Richard Colombo, 1987. "Counting Your Customers: Who-Are They and What Will They Do Next?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Ka Lok Lee, 2005. "“Counting Your Customers” the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 275-284, August.
    10. Jerome Herniter, 1971. "A Probablistic Market Model of Purchase Timing and Brand Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4-Part-II), pages 102-113, December.
    11. Hans H.Bauer & Maik Hammerschmidt & Matthias Braehler, 2004. "The Customer Lifetime Value Concept And Its Contribution To Corporate Valuation," Microeconomics 0402006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sharad Borle & Siddharth S. Singh & Dipak C. Jain, 2008. "Customer Lifetime Value Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 100-112, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Igor Barahona & Daría Micaela Hernández & Héctor Hugo Pérez-Villarreal & María Pilar Martínez-Ruíz, 2018. "Identifying research topics in marketing science along the past decade: a content analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(1), pages 293-312, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juha Karvanen & Ari Rantanen & Lasse Luoma, 2013. "Survey data and Bayesian analysis: a cost-efficient way to estimate customer equity," Papers 1304.5380, arXiv.org, revised May 2014.
    2. Michael Platzer & Thomas Reutterer, 2016. "Ticking Away the Moments: Timing Regularity Helps to Better Predict Customer Activity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 779-799, September.
    3. Park, Chang Hee & Park, Young-Hoon & Schweidel, David A., 2014. "A multi-category customer base analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 266-279.
    4. Glady, Nicolas & Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe, 2015. "Unveiling the relationship between the transaction timing, spending and dropout behavior of customers," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 78-93.
    5. repec:tiu:tiutis:52e91e47-4a2d-4e7b-bb23-3926b842ae30 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jerath, Kinshuk & Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2016. "Customer-base analysis using repeated cross-sectional summary (RCSS) data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 340-350.
    7. Alina Ferecatu & Arnaud Bruyn & Prithwiraj Mukherjee, 2024. "Silently killing your panelists one email at a time: The true cost of email solicitations," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1216-1239, July.
    8. Romero, Jaime & van der Lans, Ralf & Wierenga, Berend, 2013. "A Partially Hidden Markov Model of Customer Dynamics for CLV Measurement," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 185-208.
    9. David A. Schweidel & George Knox, 2013. "Incorporating Direct Marketing Activity into Latent Attrition Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 471-487, May.
    10. Patrick Bachmann & Markus Meierer & Jeffrey Näf, 2021. "The Role of Time-Varying Contextual Factors in Latent Attrition Models for Customer Base Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 783-809, July.
    11. Rajkumar Venkatesan & Alexander Bleier & Werner Reinartz & Nalini Ravishanker, 2019. "Improving customer profit predictions with customer mindset metrics through multiple overimputation," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 771-794, September.
    12. Aurélie Lemmens & Sunil Gupta, 2020. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(5), pages 956-973, September.
    13. Albert C. Bemmaor & Nicolas Glady, 2012. "Modeling Purchasing Behavior with Sudden "Death": A Flexible Customer Lifetime Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1012-1021, May.
    14. Giang Trinh & Cam Rungie & Malcolm Wright & Carl Driesener & John Dawes, 2014. "Predicting future purchases with the Poisson log-normal model," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 219-234, June.
    15. Huang, Chun-Yao, 2012. "To model, or not to model: Forecasting for customer prioritization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 497-506.
    16. Chou, Ping & Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun & Chou, Yen-Chun & Liang, Ting-Peng, 2022. "Predictive analytics for customer repurchase: Interdisciplinary integration of buy till you die modeling and machine learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 635-651.
    17. Eva Ascarza & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2013. "A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 570-590, July.
    18. Eva Ascarza & Scott A. Neslin & Oded Netzer & Zachery Anderson & Peter S. Fader & Sunil Gupta & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Aurélie Lemmens & Barak Libai & David Neal & Foster Provost & Rom Schrift, 2018. "In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 5(1), pages 65-81, March.
    19. Reutterer, Thomas & Platzer, Michael & Schröder, Nadine, 2021. "Leveraging purchase regularity for predicting customer behavior the easy way," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 194-215.
    20. Valendin, Jan & Reutterer, Thomas & Platzer, Michael & Kalcher, Klaudius, 2022. "Customer base analysis with recurrent neural networks," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 988-1018.
    21. David A. Schweidel & Young-Hoon Park & Zainab Jamal, 2014. "A Multiactivity Latent Attrition Model for Customer Base Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 273-286, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; Brand switching; Customer equity; Customer lifetime value; Survey; M31; C11; C81; C34; C83;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:qmktec:v:12:y:2014:i:3:p:305-329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.