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Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment

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  • Harchaoui, Tarek M
  • Lasserre, Pierre

Abstract

This article statistically tests the option theory of irreversible investment. Using contingent claims valuation, we derive the value of options to invest in capacity, where the projects are endogenous to the economic circumstances prevailing at the investment date. We then test whether decisions made by Canadian copper mines are compatible with the trigger price implied by the theory. Our model explains investment size and timing satisfactorily from a statistical and an economic point of view; simulations with a mean-reverting process suggest that the results do not depend crucially on the assumption that price follows a geometric Brownian motion.

Suggested Citation

  • Harchaoui, Tarek M & Lasserre, Pierre, 2001. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-166, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:42:y:2001:i:1:p:141-66
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    1. Gordon, Robert J, 1992. "Measuring the Aggregate Price Level: Implications for Economic Performance and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 663, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. George Koutoulas & Lawrence Kryzanowski, 1994. "Integration or Segmentation of the Canadian Stock Market: Evidence Based on the APT," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 329-351, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Löfgren, Åsa & Millock, Katrin & Nauges, Céline, 2008. "The effect of uncertainty on pollution abatement investments: Measuring hurdle rates for Swedish industry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 475-491, December.
    2. LOFGREN Asa & MILLOCK Katrin & NAUGES Céline, 2007. "Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments - An application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector," LERNA Working Papers 07.06.227, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    3. Turvey, Calum G. & Toole, Andrew A. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2007. "An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Real Options Values and the Rate of Investment," 2007 1st Forum, February 15-17, 2007, Innsbruck, Austria 6606, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    4. Marc Fréchet & Hassen Raîs, 2015. "Les managers raisonnent-ils par options réelles ? Une étude exploratoire des déterminants," Post-Print hal-01764120, HAL.
    5. Lucija Muehlenbachs, 2015. "A Dynamic Model Of Cleanup: Estimating Sunk Costs In Oil And Gas Production," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 155-185, February.
    6. Liu, Bo & Liu, Yang & Peng, Juan & Yang, Jinqiang, 2017. "Optimal capital structure and credit spread under incomplete information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 596-611.
    7. Di Corato, Luca, 2013. "Profit sharing under the threat of nationalization," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 295-315.
    8. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    9. Marmer, Vadim & Slade, Margaret E., 2018. "Investment and uncertainty with time to build: Evidence from entry into U.S. copper mining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 233-254.
    10. Guido Fioretti, 2005. "A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 357-381, June.
    11. Jérôme Bourdieu & Benoît Coeuré & Béatrice Sédillot, 1997. "Investissement, incertitude et irréversibilité. Quelques développements récents de la théorie de l'investissement," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 23-53.
    12. Sumru Altug & Fanny S. Demers & Michel Demers, 2004. "Tax Policy and Irreversible Investment," CDMA Working Paper Series 200404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    13. Åsa Löfgren & Katrin Millock & Céline Nauges, 2008. "Using ex post data to estimate the hurdle rate of abatement investments - an application to sulfur emissions from the Swedish pulp and paper industry and energy sector," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00261523, HAL.
    14. Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2012. "Testing for Avoidance of Environmental Obligations," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-12, Resources for the Future.
    15. El-Shazly Alaa, 2004. "Investment Under Uncertainty in Egypt: A Real-Options Approach," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 51-60, August.
    16. Slade, Margaret E., 2015. "The rise and fall of an industry: Entry in U.S. copper mining, 1835–1986," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-169.
    17. Robert Cairns, 2004. "Green Accounting for an Externality, Pollution at a Mine," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 27(4), pages 409-427, April.
    18. Enrico Pennings & Carlo Altomonte, 2006. "The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real‐option Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 569-593, October.
    19. Guo, Xin & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2005. "Irreversible investment with regime shifts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 37-59, May.
    20. Liu, Xiaoran & Ronn, Ehud I., 2020. "Using the binomial model for the valuation of real options in computing optimal subsidies for Chinese renewable energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    21. Alaev, Andrey (Алаев, Андрей) & Arlashkin, Igor (Арлашкин, Игорь) & Deryugin, Alexander (Дерюгин, Александр), 2015. "Development of Approaches for Effective Demarcation of Expenditure Responsibilities between Levels of Government in the Russian Federation [Выработка Подходов По Эффективному Разграничению Расходны," Published Papers mn18, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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