IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00272041.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments – An Application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Katrin Millock

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Céline Nauges

    (LERNA - Economie des Ressources Naturelles - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)

  • Åsa Löfgren

    (Department of Economics, Göteborg University - GU - Göteborgs Universitet = University of Gothenburg)

Abstract

We propose a method for estimating hurdlerates for firms' investments in pollution abatement technology, using expost data. The method is based on a structural option value model where thefuture price of polluting fuel is the major source of uncertainty facing thefirm. The econometric procedure is illustrated using a panel of firms fromthe Swedish pulp and paper industry, and the energy and heating sector from2000 to 2003. The results indicate a hurdle rate of investment of almost 3in the pulp and paper industry and almost 4 in the energy and heating sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Katrin Millock & Céline Nauges & Åsa Löfgren, 2007. "Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments – An Application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector," Post-Print halshs-00272041, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00272041
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00272041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00272041/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harchaoui, Tarek M & Lasserre, Pierre, 2001. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-166, February.
    2. Berck, Peter & Roberts, Michael, 1996. "Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-78, July.
    3. J. Scott Shonkwiler & Steven T. Yen, 1999. "Two-Step Estimation of a Censored System of Equations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 972-982.
    4. Khanna, Madhu & Zilberman, David, 1997. "Incentives, precision technology and environmental protection," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 25-43, October.
    5. Slade, Margaret E., 1988. "Grade selection under uncertainty: Least cost last and other anomalies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 189-205, June.
    6. Margaret Insley, 2003. "On the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 860-883, November.
    7. Pindyck, Robert S., 2000. "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 233-259, July.
    8. Ronald J. Sutherland, 1991. "Market Barriers to Energy-Efficiency Investments," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 15-34.
    9. Pindyck, Robert S., 2002. "Optimal timing problems in environmental economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1677-1697, August.
    10. Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 9-21, December.
    11. Bruce Larson & George Frisvold, 1996. "Uncertainty over future environmental taxes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 8(4), pages 461-471, December.
    12. Diansheng Dong & Atanu Saha, 1998. "He came, he saw, (and) he waited: an empirical analysis of inertia in technology adoption," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 893-905.
    13. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Fundamental irreversibilities in stock externalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-233, May.
    14. Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1992. "Energy Tax Credits and Residential Conservation Investment," NBER Working Papers 4020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    16. Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 1997. "Pollution Accumulation and Firm Incentives to Accelerate Technological Change Under Uncertain Private Benefits," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 285-300, October.
    17. Jerry A. Hausman, 1979. "Individual Discount Rates and the Purchase and Utilization of Energy-Using Durables," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 33-54, Spring.
    18. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    19. Gale A. Boyd & Stephen H. Karlson, 1993. "The Impact of Energy Prices on Technology Choice in the United States Steel Industry," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 47-56.
    20. Leigh J. Maynard & James S. Shortle, 2001. "Determinants of Cleaner Technology Investments in the U.S. Bleached Kraft Pulp Industry," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(4), pages 561-576.
    21. Janis M. Carey & David Zilberman, 2002. "A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 171-183.
    22. Daan van Soest & Erwin Bulte, 2001. "Does the Energy-Efficiency Paradox Exist? Technological Progress and Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 18(1), pages 101-112, January.
    23. Richards, Timothy J., 1996. "Economic Hysteresis And The Effects Of Output Regulation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-17, July.
    24. Hassett, Kevin A. & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 1995. "Energy tax credits and residential conservation investment: Evidence from panel data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 201-217, June.
    25. Paul Diederen & Frank van Tongeren & Hennie van der Veen, 2003. "Returns on Investments in Energy-saving Technologies Under Energy Price Uncertainty in Dutch Greenhouse Horticulture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(4), pages 379-394, April.
    26. Jaffe, Adam B. & Stavins, Robert N., 1994. "The energy-efficiency gap What does it mean?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 804-810, October.
    27. Murat Isik, 2004. "Incentives for Technology Adoption Under Environmental Policy Uncertainty: Implications for Green Payment Programs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 27(3), pages 247-263, March.
    28. Hassett, Kevin A. & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 1993. "Energy conservation investment : Do consumers discount the future correctly?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 710-716, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hammar, Henrik & Löfgren, Åsa, 2007. "Explaining adoption of end of pipe solutions and clean technologies," Working Papers 102, National Institute of Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Löfgren, Åsa & Millock, Katrin & Nauges, Céline, 2008. "The effect of uncertainty on pollution abatement investments: Measuring hurdle rates for Swedish industry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 475-491, December.
    2. Åsa Löfgren & Katrin Millock & Céline Nauges, 2008. "Using ex post data to estimate the hurdle rate of abatement investments - an application to sulfur emissions from the Swedish pulp and paper industry and energy sector," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne v08017, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Hammar, Henrik & Löfgren, Åsa, 2007. "Explaining adoption of end of pipe solutions and clean technologies," Working Papers 102, National Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Hammar, Henrik & Löfgren, Åsa, 2010. "Explaining adoption of end of pipe solutions and clean technologies--Determinants of firms' investments for reducing emissions to air in four sectors in Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3644-3651, July.
    5. Schleich, Joachim & Gassmann, Xavier & Faure, Corinne & Meissner, Thomas, 2016. "Making the implicit explicit: A look inside the implicit discount rate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 321-331.
    6. Li, Shoude, 2013. "Emission permit banking, pollution abatement and production–inventory control of the firm," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 679-685.
    7. Todd D. Gerarden & Richard G. Newell & Robert N. Stavins, 2017. "Assessing the Energy-Efficiency Gap," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1486-1525, December.
    8. Häckel, Björn & Pfosser, Stefan & Tränkler, Timm, 2017. "Explaining the energy efficiency gap - Expected Utility Theory versus Cumulative Prospect Theory," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 414-426.
    9. Viju, Crina & Kerr, William A. & Nolan, James F., 2006. "Subsidization of the Biofuel Industry: Security vs. Clean Air?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21321, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. van Soest, Daan P., 2005. "The impact of environmental policy instruments on the timing of adoption of energy-saving technologies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 235-247, October.
    11. Dorothée Charlier & Alejandro Mosino & Aude Pommeret, 2011. "Energy-saving Technology Adoption under Uncertainty in the Residential Sector," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 103-104, pages 43-70.
    12. Schleich, Joachim & Gruber, Edelgard, 2008. "Beyond case studies: Barriers to energy efficiency in commerce and the services sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 449-464, March.
    13. Fran�ois Cohen & Matthieu Glachant & Magnus S�derberg, 2015. "The impact of energy prices on energy efficiency: Evidence from the UK refrigerator market," GRI Working Papers 179, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    14. Schleich, Joachim, 2009. "Barriers to energy efficiency: A comparison across the German commercial and services sector," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2150-2159, May.
    15. Saltari, Enrico & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2011. "The effects of environmental policies on the abatement investment decisions of a green firm," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 666-685, September.
    16. Sanstad, Alan H & Blumstein, Carl & Stoft, Steven E, 1995. "How high are option values in energy-efficiency investments?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 739-743, September.
    17. Agliardi, Elettra & Sereno, Luigi, 2012. "Environmental protection, public finance requirements and the timing of emission reductions," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 715-739, December.
    18. Stavins, Robert & Jaffe, Adam & Newell, Richard, 2000. "Technological Change and the Environment," Working Paper Series rwp00-002, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    19. Pedro Linares & Xavier Labandeira, 2010. "Energy Efficiency: Economics And Policy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 573-592, July.
    20. Heather Klemick & Elizabeth Kopits & Keith Sargent & Ann Wolverton, 2014. "Heavy-Duty Trucks and the Energy Efficiency Paradox," NCEE Working Paper Series 201402, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    option value; fuel price uncertainty; carbon emissions abatement; price uncertainty; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00272041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.