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Using the binomial model for the valuation of real options in computing optimal subsidies for Chinese renewable energy investments

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  • Liu, Xiaoran
  • Ronn, Ehud I.

Abstract

For the valuation and implementation of renewable energy investments, the issue of providing private investors with a financial incentive to accelerate their investment is frequently a critical component. We apply this principle to the Chinese context. This paper focuses on using the binomial model to compute the required subsidy that would incentivize investors to optimal immediate exercise of the American-style option embedded at the launching phase of the projects for Chinese renewable energy investments. In addition, this paper also aims at contrasting the binomial model with the more-laborious Monte Carlo simulation previously used to evaluate the proper subsidy. By using the same data but a different method, and reducing the number of uncertain factors to one, it is suggested these two methods have similar outcomes but the binomial method requires substantially less computation and is more self-explanatory. This paper thus provides government with an easy-to-implement alternative way to compute the required subsidy.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xiaoran & Ronn, Ehud I., 2020. "Using the binomial model for the valuation of real options in computing optimal subsidies for Chinese renewable energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:87:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320300311
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104692
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    9. Fabianek, Paul & Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2021. "A Sequential Real Options Analysis for Renewable Power-to-Hydrogen Plants in Germany and California," FCN Working Papers 1/2021, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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    12. Ravi Kashyap, 2022. "Options as Silver Bullets: Valuation of Term Loans, Inventory Management, Emissions Trading and Insurance Risk Mitigation using Option Theory," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(2), pages 1175-1215, August.
    13. Hui Wang & Congcong Wang & Wenhui Zhao, 2022. "Decision on Mixed Trading between Medium- and Long-Term Markets and Spot Markets for Electricity Sales Companies under New Electricity Reform Policies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-23, December.
    14. Andrejs Čirjevskis, 2021. "Exploring the Link of Real Options Theory with Dynamic Capabilities Framework in Open Innovation-Type Merger and Acquisition Deals," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-16, April.
    15. Piotr W. Saługa & Paweł Grzesiak & Jacek Kamiński, 2020. "Valuation of Decision Flexibility and Strategic Value in Coal Gasification Projects with the Option-To-Switch between Different Outputs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Zhang, Ruixiaoxiao & Shimada, Koji & Ni, Meng & Shen, Geoffrey Q.P. & Wong, Johnny K.W., 2020. "Low or No subsidy? Proposing a regional power grid based wind power feed-in tariff benchmark price mechanism in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real options in energy markets; Using the binomial model to value American-style options;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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