IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iefi07/6606.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Real Options Values and the Rate of Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Turvey, Calum G.
  • Toole, Andrew A.
  • Kropp, Jaclyn D.

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between uncertainty and investment decisions by food and non-food firms. Using hysteresis and the real options paradigm, we review why uncertainty might cause firms to delay investment. In particular, our model looks for a negative relationship between capital invested and uncertainty. In the alternative, if the relationship is positive, this may be consistent with the exercise of growth options or competitive markets. Empirical results are mixed. In one of the four models we present there is clear evidence of hysteresis, that is a negative relationship between year over year investment and uncertainty. The remaining 3 models indicate the opposite, a positive relationship between investment and risk. Although the models differ, the first model is the stronger of the three. Nonetheless, the results are ambiguous. Although we use a large cross sectional, time series panel set of data, we find nothing remarkable about the food industry per se, except that across industries, their level of investment is about in the middle.

Suggested Citation

  • Turvey, Calum G. & Toole, Andrew A. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2007. "An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Real Options Values and the Rate of Investment," 2007 1st Forum, February 15-17, 2007, Innsbruck, Austria 6606, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iefi07:6606
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6606
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/6606/files/sp08tu01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.6606?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sydney D. Howell & Axel J. Jägle, 1997. "Laboratory Evidence on How Managers Intuitively Value Real Growth Options," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7&8), pages 915-935.
    2. Harchaoui, Tarek M & Lasserre, Pierre, 2001. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-166, February.
    3. Robert May, 2001. "Risk and uncertainty," Nature, Nature, vol. 411(6840), pages 891-891, June.
    4. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    6. Quigg, Laura, 1993. "Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 621-640, June.
    7. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    8. Marcus, Alan J. & Modest, David M., 1986. "The Valuation of a Random Number of Put Options: An Application to Agricultural Price Supports," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 73-86, March.
    9. Sydney D. Howell & Axel J. Jägle, 1997. "Laboratory Evidence on How Managers Intuitively Value Real Growth Options," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7‐8), pages 915-935, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    3. Andrew Carver & Matthew Ennis, 2011. "The real options content of oil producer stocks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 217-231.
    4. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    5. Muhammad Zaim Razak & Haniza Khalid & Azhar Mohamad, 2018. "Speculative Behavior in Vacant Land Development: Evidence for Real Options in Malaysia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 56(4), pages 245-266, December.
    6. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    7. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2015. "Pricing of Long-dated Commodity Derivatives with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates," Research Paper Series 366, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Renigier-Biłozor Małgorzata & d’Amato Maurizio, 2017. "The Valuation of Hope Value for Real Estate Development," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 91-101, June.
    9. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    10. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013, January-A.
    11. Jianjun Miao & Neng Wang, 2004. "Investment, Hedging, and Consumption Smoothing," Finance 0407014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    13. Wu, Ming-Cheng, 2011. "Antecedents of patent value using exchange option models: Evidence from a panel data analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 81-86, January.
    14. Simone Kelly, 2017. "The market premium for the option to close: evidence from Australian gold mining firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(2), pages 511-531, June.
    15. Amir Ahmad Dar & Mohammad Shahfaraz Khan & Imran Azad & Amit Kumar Pathak & Gopu Jayaraman, 2024. "Literature review: options and its applications," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(8), pages 1-26, August.
    16. Driouchi, Tarik & Trigeorgis, Lenos & So, Raymond H.Y., 2020. "Individual antecedents of real options appraisal: The role of national culture and ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1018-1032.
    17. Calum G. Turvey, 2010. "Biography," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(1), pages 5-20, May.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6782 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    20. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
    21. Alkaraan, Fadi & Northcott, Deryl, 2006. "Strategic capital investment decision-making: A role for emergent analysis tools?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 149-173.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iefi07:6606. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ilbonde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.